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Abstract
The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic resulted in considerable morbidity and mortality as well as severe economic and societal disruptions. Despite scientific progress, true infection severity, factoring both diagnosed and undiagnosed infections, remains poorly understood. This study aimed to estimate SARS-CoV-2 age-stratified and overall morbidity and mortality rates based on analysis of extensive epidemiological data for the pervasive epidemic in Qatar, a country where < 9% of the population are ≥ 50 years. We show that SARS-CoV-2 severity and fatality demonstrate a striking age dependence with low values for those aged < 50 years, but rapidly growing rates for those ≥ 50 years. Age dependence was particularly pronounced for infection criticality rate and infection fatality rate. With Qatar’s young population, overall SARS-CoV-2 severity and fatality were not high with < 4 infections in every 1000 being severe or critical and < 2 in every 10,000 being fatal. Only 13 infections in every 1000 received any hospitalization in acute-care-unit beds and < 2 in every 1000 were hospitalized in intensive-care-unit beds. However, we show that these rates would have been much higher if Qatar’s population had the demographic structure of Europe or the United States. Epidemic expansion in nations with young populations may lead to considerably lower disease burden than currently believed.
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1 Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Doha, Qatar (GRID:grid.416973.e) (ISNI:0000 0004 0582 4340); Cornell University, World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics On HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine–Qatar, Doha, Qatar (GRID:grid.416973.e) (ISNI:0000 0004 0582 4340); Cornell University, Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, New York, USA (GRID:grid.5386.8) (ISNI:000000041936877X)
2 Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Doha, Qatar (GRID:grid.416973.e) (ISNI:0000 0004 0582 4340); Cornell University, World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics On HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine–Qatar, Doha, Qatar (GRID:grid.416973.e) (ISNI:0000 0004 0582 4340)
3 Qatar University, Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, Doha, Qatar (GRID:grid.412603.2) (ISNI:0000 0004 0634 1084)
4 American University of Beirut, Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, Beirut, Lebanon (GRID:grid.22903.3a) (ISNI:0000 0004 1936 9801)
5 Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar (GRID:grid.413548.f) (ISNI:0000 0004 0571 546X)
6 Cornell University, Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, New York, USA (GRID:grid.5386.8) (ISNI:000000041936877X); Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar (GRID:grid.413548.f) (ISNI:0000 0004 0571 546X)
7 Qatar University, Biomedical Research Center, Doha, Qatar (GRID:grid.412603.2) (ISNI:0000 0004 0634 1084); Qatar University, Department of Biomedical Science, College of Health Sciences, Member of QU Health, Doha, Qatar (GRID:grid.412603.2) (ISNI:0000 0004 0634 1084)
8 Primary Health Care Corporation, Doha, Qatar (GRID:grid.498624.5) (ISNI:0000 0004 4676 5308)
9 Ministry of Public Health, Doha, Qatar (GRID:grid.498619.b)