Predicting Modular Efficiency in Oil and Gas Capital Projects Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis

Abstract

The popularity of modularization as a strategy for capital projects in the engineering procurement and construction (EPC) industry is on the rise. Industry research has asserted that reducing the construction activities on the construction site reduces the overall project schedule and cost, thereby making modularization more cost and schedule efficient than nonmodular approaches. However, current literature is divided on the cost- and schedule-reducing effects of modular construction strategies. Primarily, this Praxis examines the efficiency and percentage differences between costs and schedules of Modular and Nonmodular approaches using multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods. Then, the Praxis presents a predictive efficiency model to improve the benefits of using a modular strategy. The model is built from domain expert knowledge on modular critical success factors using Evidential Reasoning (ER). Critical success factors for modularity are identified and divided into four domains: Engineering, Supply Chain and Logistics, Modular Contractors, and Owner’s Involvement. The model aims to aid project stakeholders to better understand and manage the trade-offs between four influential project management domains, thereby enhancing the planning stages of modular projects. Sensitivity analysis techniques were used to identify the points where outcome probabilities are subject to change given different criteria. Finally, the research methodology was validated using a confusion matrix and ROC methods. Results indicated the model improved the prediction ability of modular projects by at least 10%.