Calculating the serial interval of SARS-CoV-2 in Lebanon using 2020 contact-tracing data

Abstract

Introduction

The first detected case in Lebanon on 21 February 2020 engendered implementation of a nationwide lockdown alongside timely contact-tracing and testing.

Objectives

Our study aims to calculate the serial interval of SARS-CoV-2 using contact tracing data collected 21 February to 30 June 2020 in Lebanon to guide testing strategies.

Methods

rRT-PCR positive COVID-19 cases reported to the Ministry of Public Health Epidemiological Surveillance Program (ESU-MOH) are rapidly investigated and identified contacts tested. Positive cases and contacts assigned into chains of transmission during the study time-period were verified to identify those symptomatic, with non-missing date-of-onset and reported source of exposure. Selected cases were classified in infector–infectee pairs. We calculated mean and standard deviation for the serial interval and best distribution fit using AIC criterion.

Results

Of a total 1788 positive cases reported, we included 103 pairs belonging to 24 chains of transmissions. Most cases were Lebanese (98%) and male (63%). All infectees acquired infection locally. Mean serial interval was 5.24 days, with a standard deviation of 3.96 and a range of − 4 to 16 days. Normal distribution was an acceptable fit for our non-truncated data.

Conclusion

Timely investigation and social restriction measures limited recall and reporting biases. Pre-symptomatic transmission up to 4 days prior to symptoms onset was documented among close contacts. Our SI estimates, in line with international literature, provided crucial information that fed into national contact tracing measures. Our study, demonstrating the value of contact-tracing data for evidence-based response planning, can help inform national responses in other countries.