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Contents
- Abstract
- The Current Meta-Analysis
- Candidate Core Components of Episodic Future Thinking
- Valence
- Vividness
- Episodicity
- Future-Orientedness
- Content Specificity
- Choice Impulsivity
- Further Procedural Moderators
- Summary
- Method
- Literature Search
- Inclusion and Exclusion Criteria
- Data Extraction
- Moderator Coding
- Choice Domain
- Valence
- Vividness
- Episodicity
- Future-Orientedness
- Content-Specificity
- Choice Impulsivity
- Design
- Study Site
- Publication Status
- Statistical Analysis
- Deriving Effect Sizes
- Data Synthesis
- Assessment of Heterogeneity
- Moderator Analysis
- Model Comparisons
- Outlier Analyses
- Assessment of Publication Bias
- Results
- Descriptive Statistics
- Overall Effect
- Variance of the Overall Effect Size
- Moderator Analyses
- Choice Domain
- Theoretically Motivated Moderators
- Valence
- Vividness
- Episodicity
- Future-Orientedness
- Content Specificity
- Choice Impulsivity
- Procedural Moderators
- Design
- Study Site
- Publication Status
- Multiple Moderator Model
- Assessment of Publication Bias
- Assessment on the Three-Level Model
- Assessment on Aggregated Effect Sizes
- p-Curve
- p-uniform*
- Trim-and-Fill
- Summary
- Discussion
- Core Components of Episodic Future Thoughts
- Valence
- Vividness
- Content Specificity
- Episodicity
- Future-Orientedness
- Interim Conclusion: The Case for Episodic Future Thinking
- Intertemporal Choice and Impulsivity: Clinical Implications
- Procedural Moderators
- Caveats
- Influence of Demand Characteristics?
- EFT May Not Always Be Adaptive
- Publication Bias
- Conclusions
- Context
- Appendix A
Figures and Tables
Abstract
Episodic future thinking (EFT) denotes our capacity to imagine prospective events. It has been suggested to promote farsighted decisions that entail a trade-off between short-term versus long-term gains. Here, we meta-analyze the evidence for the impact of EFT on such intertemporal choices that have monetary or health-relevant consequences. Across 174 effect sizes from 48 articles, a three-level model yielded a medium-sized effect of g = .44, 95% (CI) [.33, .55]. Notably, this analysis included a substantial number of unpublished experiments, and the effect remained significant following further adjustments for remaining publication bias. We exploited the observed heterogeneity to determine critical core components that moderate the impact of EFT. Specifically, the effect was stronger when the imagined events were positive, more vivid, and related to the delayed choice. We further obtained evidence for the contribution of the episodicity and future-orientedness of EFT. These results indicate that the impact of EFT cannot simply be accounted for by other modes of prospection (e.g., semantic future thinking). Of note, EFT had a greater impact in samples characterized by choice impulsivity (e.g., in obesity),...





