Prediction of lymph node metastasis in early colorectal cancer based on histologic images by artificial intelligence

Abstract

Risk evaluation of lymph node metastasis (LNM) for endoscopically resected submucosal invasive (T1) colorectal cancers (CRC) is critical for determining therapeutic strategies, but interobserver variability for histologic evaluation remains a major problem. To address this issue, we developed a machine-learning model for predicting LNM of T1 CRC without histologic assessment. A total of 783 consecutive T1 CRC cases were randomly split into 548 training and 235 validation cases. First, we trained convolutional neural networks (CNN) to extract cancer tile images from whole-slide images, then re-labeled these cancer tiles with LNM status for re-training. Statistical parameters of the tile images based on the probability of primary endpoints were assembled to predict LNM in cases with a random forest algorithm, and defined its predictive value as random forest score. We evaluated the performance of case-based prediction models for both training and validation datasets with area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC). The accuracy for classifying cancer tiles was 0.980. Among cancer tiles, the accuracy for classifying tiles that were LNM-positive or LNM-negative was 0.740. The AUCs of the prediction models in the training and validation sets were 0.971 and 0.760, respectively. CNN judged the LNM probability by considering histologic tumor grade.