The Risk Atlas of Mexico City, Mexico: a tool for decision-making and disaster prevention

Abstract

We present a Risk Atlas of Mexico City based on a Geographical Information System (RA-GIS). We identified the prevalent social risk to the more relevant hazards in Mexico City (CDMX): earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, floods, landslides, forest fires, and land subsidence. A total of 274 shape-file maps were generated in this project. Seismic hazard was estimated for return periods (RP) of 20, 125, 250, and 475 years. Three areas in central and northwestern CDMX were identified along the Younger Chichinautzin Monogenetic Volcanic Field with a high probability of forming a new volcano. Subsidence is concentrated to the east and southeast of CDMX, where subsidence rates are among the highest worldwide. Flooding events were estimated for RP of 2, 5, 10, 50, and 100 years, and most of them are concentrated in the central and northern sectors of the city. During the dry season (December–April), southern CDMX has very high probability of forest fire occurrence. There is high susceptibility of landslides on the west and southwest of the city. The goals of this RA-GIS are to provide a tool to the local and federal authorities and all organizations responsible for disaster prevention and mitigation to: (1) improve the knowledge of the potential physical and social impact of local hazards; (2) provide elements for disaster prevention, mitigation, preparedness, and response; (3) benefit decision-makers with robust risk data; (4) provide information for land-use planning; and (5) support further research to reduce the impact of disasters caused by natural phenomena.