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Abstract
The evolutionary dynamics of tumor initiation remain undetermined, and the interplay between neoplastic cells and the immune system is hypothesized to be critical in transformation. Colorectal cancer (CRC) presents a unique opportunity to study the transition to malignancy as pre-cancers (adenomas) and early-stage cancers are frequently resected. Here, we examine tumor-immune eco-evolutionary dynamics from pre-cancer to carcinoma using a computational model, ecological analysis of digital pathology data, and neoantigen prediction in 62 patient samples. Modeling predicted recruitment of immunosuppressive cells would be the most common driver of transformation. As predicted, ecological analysis reveals that progressed adenomas co-localized with immunosuppressive cells and cytokines, while benign adenomas co-localized with a mixed immune response. Carcinomas converge to a common immune “cold” ecology, relaxing selection against immunogenicity and high neoantigen burdens, with little evidence for PD-L1 overexpression driving tumor initiation. These findings suggest re-engineering the immunosuppressive niche may prove an effective immunotherapy in CRC.
Integration of mathematical modeling, ecological analyses of patient biopsies, and neoantigen heterogeneity suggests recruitment of immunosuppressive cells is key to initializing transformation from adenoma to carcinoma in human colorectal cancer.
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1 H. Lee Moffitt Cancer Center & Research Institute, Integrated Mathematical Oncology Department, Tampa, USA (GRID:grid.468198.a) (ISNI:0000 0000 9891 5233)
2 Barts Cancer Institute, Queen Mary University of London, Evolution and Cancer Laboratory, Centre for Genomics and Computational Biology, London, UK (GRID:grid.4868.2) (ISNI:0000 0001 2171 1133)
3 H. Lee Moffitt Cancer Center & Research Institute, Integrated Mathematical Oncology Department, Tampa, USA (GRID:grid.468198.a) (ISNI:0000 0000 9891 5233); University of Oxford, Wellcome Centre for Human Genetics, Oxford, UK (GRID:grid.4991.5) (ISNI:0000 0004 1936 8948)
4 Barts Cancer Institute, Queen Mary University of London, Evolution and Cancer Laboratory, Centre for Genomics and Computational Biology, London, UK (GRID:grid.4868.2) (ISNI:0000 0001 2171 1133); Lyon Cancer Institute, Lyon, France (GRID:grid.4868.2)
5 University College London Hospital, Department of Pathology, London, UK (GRID:grid.439749.4) (ISNI:0000 0004 0612 2754)
6 H. Lee Moffitt Cancer Center & Research Institute, Cancer Physiology, Tampa, USA (GRID:grid.468198.a) (ISNI:0000 0000 9891 5233); University of Illinois at Chicago, Department of Biological Sciences, Chicago, USA (GRID:grid.185648.6) (ISNI:0000 0001 2175 0319)
7 Institute of Cancer Research, Center for Evolution and Cancer, London, UK (GRID:grid.18886.3f)
8 University of Oxford, Wellcome Centre for Human Genetics, Oxford, UK (GRID:grid.4991.5) (ISNI:0000 0004 1936 8948)