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Abstract
We examined time trends and projected obesity epidemic in Brazilian adults between 2006 and 2030 by sex, race/skin color, educational attainment, and state capitals. Self-reported body weight and height of 730,309 adults (≥ 18 years) from the Vigitel study were collected by telephone interview between 2006 and 2019. A multinomial logistic regression model was used to predict the prevalence of body mass index (BMI) categories as a function of time by 2030. The prevalence of obesity increased from 11.8% in 2006 to 20.3% in 2019. The projected prevalences by 2030 are estimated to be 68.1% for overweight, 29.6% for obesity, and 9.3% for obesity classes II and III. Women, black and other minority ethnicities, middle-aged adults, adults with ≤ 7 years of education, and in Northern and Midwestern capitals are estimated to have higher obesity prevalence by 2030. Our findings indicate a sustained increase in the obesity epidemic in all sociodemographic subgroups and across the country. Obesity may reach three out of 10 adults by 2030.
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Details
1 Escola Paulista de Medicina, Universidade Federal de São Paulo, Department of Preventive Medicine, Sao Paulo, Brazil (GRID:grid.411249.b) (ISNI:0000 0001 0514 7202)
2 Especialidad Medicina del Deporte Y La Actividad Física, Universidad Mayor, Facultad de Ciencias, Santiago, Chile (GRID:grid.412199.6) (ISNI:0000 0004 0487 8785)
3 Datrics, Santiago, Chile (GRID:grid.412199.6)
4 Universidade Federal de Uberlândia, Faculdade de Medicina, Uberlândia, Brazil (GRID:grid.411284.a) (ISNI:0000 0004 4647 6936)
5 Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG), Departamento de Nutrição, Escola de Enfermagem, Belo Horizonte, Brasil (GRID:grid.8430.f) (ISNI:0000 0001 2181 4888)
6 Universidad de Santiago de Chile (USACH), Escuela de Ciencias de la Actividad Física, El Deporte y la Salud, Santiago, Chile (GRID:grid.412179.8) (ISNI:0000 0001 2191 5013)
7 Centro Universitário FMABC, Laboratório de Epidemiologia e Análise de Dados, São Paulo, Brasil (GRID:grid.412179.8)