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Introduction
One of the criticisms I've faced over the years is that I'm not aggressive enough or assertive enough, or maybe somehow, because I'm empathetic, it means I'm weak. I totally rebel against that. I refuse to believe that you cannot be both compassionate and strong (Jacinda Ardern, 8 Sep, 2018).
Jacinda Ardern, the relatively young prime minister of New Zealand, has a global reputation that shines brightly and remains undimmed throughout the five years (and counting) of her leadership thus far. She is known around the world for her passion, positivity and perseverance in the face of crises (Duff, 2019; Blackwell, 2020; Chapman, 2020; Le Fevre, 2021; Head, 2021; Vani and Harte, 2021). Her reputation within Aotearoa New Zealand (NZ) also remains strong, albeit with more dissenting voices along the way than may be recognized abroad. While these dissenting voices remain few in number they have become increasingly loud: this article is being finalized during the middle of one of the biggest and most vociferous protests in NZ history, in which the Parliamentary grounds have been occupied by thousands of protestors, many of whom shamefully proclaiming anti-Semitic rhetoric and symbolism. With the present currently being contested how, then, will history judge Ardern's reign?
Assessing a leader's place in history while they are still in power is clearly difficult: to quote the old expression “the Owl of Minerva spreads her wings only at dusk”. Nevertheless, there are a number of frameworks that can be used to accomplish the task and this article draws on three of them. We first look at trends in political leadership from a historical cycle perspective (Modeslki, 1987), which explains the likely flow of history, leaving ample room for complexities, ironies and occasional contradictions.
Second, we examine the comparatively new phenomenon of women gaining office through democratic political leadership mechanisms. While women have famously peppered history in leadership roles, they have not done so through democratic political processes until recently because of the inability to vote. The first indirectly elected female prime minister was in 1960 and the first directly elected president in 1980, well within the memory of people alive today.
Third, we examine the New Zealand political and economic context which is full of contrasts. New Zealand is moderately...