Framework for Spatio-Temporal Distribution of Disasters and Influencing Factors: Exploratory Study of Tianjin, China

1. Introduction

Frequent disasters have posed great challenges to urban security. Disaster is a kind of complicated random event, which is formed under the joint action of multiple conditions [1,2,3,4]. Cities are susceptible to the comprehensive effects of multiple disasters [5]. Disasters in cities have a high intensity of damage, demanding the formulation and implementation of innovative advanced prevention strategies for disaster risk management (DRM) and disaster risk reduction (DRR) [6].

National frameworks for disaster management have been developed in many states around the word, like United States of America [7] and Germany [8], which have regulated the response to all types of disasters. In the same regard, some regional frameworks have been proposed and applied in the Andean countries [9]. Europe also has made great progress in establishing a legal framework for better DRM [10]. In recent years, simulation-based disaster frameworks that consider the spatial and temporal aspects of the problem have gradually been paid attention to by scholars [11,12,13,14], which is a useful supplement to the research of disaster prevention and mitigation framework.

However, each of these frameworks is usually regional, and different frameworks have different analytical priorities. Few of these frameworks suggest corresponding methods for specific analysis content, which makes them less practical and operational. In addition, few frameworks emphasize the content of spatial and temporal distribution and influencing factors of disasters. In fact, understanding these two aspects is the foundation of disaster management. Therefore, it is of great significance to establish an analysis framework for temporal and spatial distribution and influencing factors of disasters, including content dimensions and suggested methods. The following is a review of the spatial and temporal distribution rules and influencing factors of disasters, laying a foundation for the framework proposed in this paper.

At present, the research on the temporal and spatial distribution of disasters mainly focuses on the specific disaster in specific regions, providing a relatively macro analysis of the spatial distribution of local disasters. Some progress has been made in the study of temporal and spatial distribution of flood disasters. Llasat et al. (2014) statistically analyzed the spatial and inter-annual distribution laws of mountain flood disasters in Catalonia during 1981 and 2010 and the evolution laws of rainfall trends in this region [15]. Saharia et...