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Abstract
As president from 2016 to 2022, Rodrigo Duterte captured the judiciary, dominated the legislature, attacked the media, and presided over a campaign of mass killing, leaving an estimated 30,000 alleged drug criminals dead. Despite wielding vast amounts of power, Duterte stepped down after the national elections on May 9, 2022 in a largely peaceful transfer of power to Ferdinand Marcos Jr., son and namesake of the former dictator deposed in 1986. Why did Duterte amass power without causing full democratic collapse into authoritarian rule? The Philippines experienced backsliding to competitive authoritarianism: while elections remain free and somewhat fair, other features of democracy like civil liberties and political freedoms have eroded badly because of mass violence. The Philippine case demonstrates the autocratizing effect of an emerging form of political violence: a focused campaign of state terror that produces fear and electoral success. I present evidence from two cases-the national "war on drugs" and its local antecedent in Davao City-to explain how violence escalates, provokes accountability, evades culpability, and contributes to democratic backsliding without immediate collapse to authoritarianism. With the election of Marcos Jr., the impunity of the former incumbent is likely to become institutionalized, and democratic backsliding is unlikely to be reversed.
Keywords: Philippines, Duterte, Marcos, democratic backsliding, state violence, war on drugs
DOI: 10.5509/2022953575
Introduction
The 2022 national and local elections in the Philippines returned the Marcos dynasty to power, decades after a popular revolt ousted dictator Ferdinand Marcos in 1986. In addition, the election elevated the status of former President Rodrigo Duterte's family. Duterte was not just a one-time populist; he generated political capital for national elections, transferable to the next generation. The result was an extraordinarily successful win for the Marcos-Duterte ticket: Ferdinand "Bong Bong" Marcos Jr. won as president with 31.6 million or 58.77 percent of ballots cast, while Mr. Duterte's daughter Sara Duterte Carpio won 32.2 million votes (61.53%) for vice president.1 These were the first absolute majority wins since the end of the Marcos Sr. dictatorship. After the shock of Duterte's strongman rule, this electoral outcome signifies a victory for continuity rather than change in the Philippines.
Still, things were not entirely smooth sailing for Duterte; he failed to secure his preferred succession plan, with his daughter defying...