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Abstract

This paper provides new insights into the asymptotic properties of the synthetic control method (SCM). We show that the synthetic control (SC) weight converges to a limiting weight that minimizes the mean squared prediction risk of the treatment-effect estimator when the number of pretreatment periods goes to infinity, and we also quantify the rate of convergence. Observing the link between the SCM and model averaging, we further establish the asymptotic optimality of the SC estimator under imperfect pretreatment fit, in the sense that it achieves the lowest possible squared prediction error among all possible treatment effect estimators that are based on an average of control units, such as matching, inverse probability weighting and difference-in-differences. The asymptotic optimality holds regardless of whether the number of control units is fixed or divergent. Thus, our results provide justifications for the SCM in a wide range of applications. The theoretical results are verified via simulations.

Details

1009240
Title
Asymptotic Properties of the Synthetic Control Method
Publication title
Source details
arXiv.org, Papers
Publication year
2022
Publication date
2022
Publisher
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Place of publication
St. Louis
Country of publication
United States
Publication subject
Source type
Working Paper
Language of publication
English
Document type
Working Paper
ProQuest document ID
2740367291
Document URL
https://www.proquest.com/working-papers/asymptotic-properties-synthetic-control-method/docview/2740367291/se-2?accountid=208611
Copyright
©2022. Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the associated terms available at https://research.stlouisfed.org/research_terms.html .
Last updated
2022-11-28
Database
2 databases
  • ProQuest One Academic
  • ProQuest One Academic