中国城市洪涝实时预报研究: 现状与挑战

Abstract

全球气候变化和快速城市化打破了城市降水—汇水—排水原有的平衡, 加剧了中国城市洪涝问题, 造成了巨大的生命和财产损失。因此, 亟须探索精确、高效的城市洪涝预报方法, 提高城市防洪抗灾能力, 降低灾害损失影响。然而, 城市气象水文过程的复杂性使得城市洪涝实时预报研究面临诸多挑战。本文梳理了我国城市洪涝频发的原因, 总结了国内城市洪涝实时预报研究在数据和模型方面的进展, 指出了当前研究面临的问题和挑战, 并对未来的发展趋势进行了展望, 以期为我国城市防洪减灾研究和工作提供参考依据。

Alternate abstract:

Global climate change and rapid urbanization had broken the original balance of urban precipitation, catchment and drainage, and worsened the urban flood problem in China, resulting in huge loss of life and property. Therefore, it is urgent to explore accurate and efficient urban flood forecasting approaches to strengthen urban flood prediction and mitigate impacts of this disaster.However, the complexity of urban meteorological and hydrological processes makes the study of real-time urban flood prediction face many challenges.Based on detailed reviews, this paper summarizes the main causes of frequent urban flooding in China, and elucidates progress in data and models for real-time urban flood prediction, with descriptions of existing problems and challenges, and future developments.