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Abstract
As the climate targets tighten and countries are impacted by several crises, understanding how and under which conditions carbon dioxide emissions peak and start declining is gaining importance. We assess the timing of emissions peaks in all major emitters (1965–2019) and the extent to which past economic crises have impacted structural drivers of emissions contributing to emission peaks. We show that in 26 of 28 countries that have peaked emissions, the peak occurred just before or during a recession through the combined effect of lower economic growth (1.5 median percentage points per year) and decreasing energy and/or carbon intensity (0.7) during and after the crisis. In peak-and-decline countries, crises have typically magnified pre-existing improvements in structural change. In non-peaking countries, economic growth was less affected, and structural change effects were weaker or increased emissions. Crises do not automatically trigger peaks but may strengthen ongoing decarbonisation trends through several mechanisms.
In most developed economies where decarbonisation processes are already in place, economic crises have coincided with a peak and subsequently declining emissions as a result of lower carbon and energy intensities, according to a statistical analysis of 45 countries between 1965 and 2019.
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1 Research Institute for Sustainability—Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, Energy Transitions & Public Policy group, Potsdam, Germany
2 ETH Zürich, Climate Policy Lab, Institute for Environmental Decisions, Zürich, Switzerland (GRID:grid.5801.c) (ISNI:0000 0001 2156 2780)
3 Research Institute for Sustainability—Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, Energy Transitions & Public Policy group, Potsdam, Germany (GRID:grid.5801.c); University of Potsdam, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, Potsdam, Germany (GRID:grid.11348.3f) (ISNI:0000 0001 0942 1117)