Assessment and Prediction of Air Quality Level Using ARIMA Model: A Case Study of Surat City, Gujarat State, India

Headnote

ABSTRACT

Air quality has recently been a huge concern as it directly affects people's lives. An air quality level assessment and prediction system is essential to keep track of air quality. Therefore, developing an efficient air quality assessment and prediction system has become one of the most important concerns. In the present work air quality level of Surat city, India is assessed and predicted for the period from 2020 to 2023 using the Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. Experimental results show that the ARIMA model outperforms the other models. According to the findings, the maximum quantity of SO₂ and NO₂ present in the air in 2020 is 37 mm and 18 mm, respectively, with a maximum of 27 mm and 31 mm in 2021. Thus, we can observe that even though SO₂ has reduced a bit, the amount of NO₂ has increased, thus degrading the quality of air.

Key Words:

Air quality

ARIMA model

Monitoring of air

Prediction system

Nat. Env. & Poll. Tech.

Website: www.neptjournal.com

Received: 26-07-2022

Revised: 06-10-2022

Accepted: 17-10-2022

INTRODUCTION

Today, many industrial and daily activities have produced significant air pollution, particularly in emerging metropolises like China and India. Exposure to outdoor air pollution can have adverse health effects that can prove to be complicated results of pollutant compositions and concentrations (Badas et al. 2019). Ozone (O3), nitrogen oxide, volatile organic compounds, metals, particulate matter, and metals are among the significant causes of air pollutants in cities (Arsov et al. 2020, Bhalgat et al. 2019). Increased air pollutants (such as SO2, O3, and PM) have been linked to higher death and morbidity rates. The urban environments air quality (PM2.5 concentrations) has severely harmed peoples work and lives in major cities (Al-Awadi 2018). The major sources of outdoor pollution are automobiles, factories, and industries, while smoke, toxins, and pollutants in the home cause indoor air pollution. Primary pollutants and secondary pollutants are the two categories of pollutants that cause air pollution (Baran et al. 2018). Primary pollutants are distinguishable

from secondary pollutants as primary pollutants are straight discharged into the air from the source. Secondary pollutants, on the other hand, cause concentrations to rise when they react with primary pollutants or other air particles.

Several toxins are...