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Abstract

We consider the problem of filtering dynamical systems, possibly stochastic, using observations of statistics. Thus, the computational task is to estimate a time-evolving density \(\rho(v, t)\) given noisy observations of the true density \(\rho^\dagger\); this contrasts with the standard filtering problem based on observations of the state \(v\). The task is naturally formulated as an infinite-dimensional filtering problem in the space of densities \(\rho\). However, for the purposes of tractability, we seek algorithms in state space; specifically, we introduce a mean-field state-space model, and using interacting particle system approximations to this model, we propose an ensemble method. We refer to the resulting methodology as the ensemble Fokker-Planck filter (EnFPF). Under certain restrictive assumptions, we show that the EnFPF approximates the Kalman-Bucy filter for the Fokker-Planck equation, which is the exact solution to the infinite-dimensional filtering problem. Furthermore, our numerical experiments show that the methodology is useful beyond this restrictive setting. Specifically, the experiments show that the EnFPF is able to correct ensemble statistics, to accelerate convergence to the invariant density for autonomous systems, and to accelerate convergence to time-dependent invariant densities for non-autonomous systems. We discuss possible applications of the EnFPF to climate ensembles and to turbulence modeling.

Details

1009240
Title
Filtering Dynamical Systems Using Observations of Statistics
Publication title
arXiv.org; Ithaca
Publication year
2024
Publication date
Feb 25, 2024
Section
Mathematics; Nonlinear Sciences; Statistics
Publisher
Cornell University Library, arXiv.org
Source
arXiv.org
Place of publication
Ithaca
Country of publication
United States
University/institution
Cornell University Library arXiv.org
e-ISSN
2331-8422
Source type
Working Paper
Language of publication
English
Document type
Working Paper
Publication history
 
 
Online publication date
2024-03-12
Milestone dates
2023-08-10 (Submission v1); 2023-12-04 (Submission v2); 2024-02-25 (Submission v3)
Publication history
 
 
   First posting date
12 Mar 2024
ProQuest document ID
2849177696
Document URL
https://www.proquest.com/working-papers/filtering-dynamical-systems-using-observations/docview/2849177696/se-2?accountid=208611
Full text outside of ProQuest
Copyright
© 2024. This work is published under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.
Last updated
2024-03-13
Database
ProQuest One Academic