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INTRODUCTION
At a minimum, Russia's war against Ukraine has created deep fissures in its relations with the other Soviet successor states in Eurasia. Most notable among these is Kazakhstan. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Kazakhstani-Russian relationship has been bolstered by shared interests in maintaining open trade and transit corridors, increasing regional security, and constraining ethnonationalism. All of these are threatened by the war in Ukraine and its consequences. While this is not the first time that being tied to Russia has exposed Kazakhstan's economic vulnerability, the war in Ukraine has signaled that Russia is an unreliable and potentially dangerous economic partner. The war has also revealed both the weakness of Russia's military and the precarity of being aligned with it-especially after Kazakhstan President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev's decision to mobilize Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) troops, dominated by Russian forces, to contain mass protests in Kazakhstan in January 2022. Moreover, the mass influx of Russians fleeing the war could upend Kazakhstan's long-standing approach to inter-ethnic relations.
Although these fissures are unlikely to result in a clean break between Kazakhstan and Russia, they are likely to transform the nature of this relationship. Relations between the two countries have never been based on an equal partnership. Russia has always considered itself the regional hegemon and President Vladimir Putin designed both economic and collective security institutions in Central Asia to secure its hegemony. The reality is that Russia's dominance was already in decline prior to its renewed aggression against Ukraine in February 2022. The longer the war lasts, the more acute this decline will become. In addition to shifting the balance of power between Russia and its Central Asian neighbors, a protracted war may lead China to recalibrate its own interests in the region. Whereas previously China could rely on Russia to provide regional security while expanding its own economic influence in Central Asia, an enervated Russia makes this division of labor much less viable. Nonetheless, the appeal of a prolonged war in Ukraine may be increasing for China.
KAZAKHSTANI-RUSSIAN RELATIONS BEFORE THE WAR
In the economic sphere, the two main institutions through which Russia under Putin has exerted influence in Kazakhstan are the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC). While serving both...