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Global democracy has been in crisis for two decades. The “third wave” of democracy that began in the mid-1970s ushered in years of democratic expansion. But the number of electoral democracies in the world has been shrinking, dipping to its lowest point since 2002 last year. Between 2000 and 2022, the world saw more democratic breakdowns (41) than transitions to democracy (36).1 The world has lost fifteen of the 86 democracies that existed at the start of the millennium. An authoritarian wave is reversing the gains made in the 1980s and 1990s. What can be done to stop it?
Most regime breakdowns today are different from those of the twentieth century. Behind the authoritarian wave are democratically elected leaders who use and abuse institutions and institutional reforms to undermine checks and balances, hinder free and fair elections, and thwart political rights and civil liberties. A wealth of literature has focused on the factors that propel these potential autocrats to power. What defenders of democracy can do once such leaders are in office, however, has received less attention.2
I have argued elsewhere that because the erosion of democracy happens over time, oppositions have ample opportunity to fight back. Which strategies they use (institutional versus extra-institutional) and for what ends (moderate versus radical) will play a major role in whether they succeed or fail in stopping a potential autocrat from undermining democracy.3
The end of the Cold War solidified a normative preference for democracy throughout much of the world, raising the costs of overt attempts to overturn democratic government. Blunt moves to shut down the legislature and courts in order to ram through desired policies, for example, tend to generate strong opposition. In December 2022, Peruvian president Pedro Castillo tried to avoid impeachment by declaring a state of emergency, dissolving the legislature, and announcing a judicial reform. The response to his declaration was immediate. Domestic and international actors mobilized against the president’s autogolpe. Minutes after his speech, the United States tweeted a condemnatory statement and the Organization of American States (OAS) called for a meeting of its Permanent Council.4 Activists and politicians also condemned the move. By the end of the day Castillo had been impeached and arrested.
To avoid this...