Nomogram incorporating Epstein-Barr virus DNA and a novel immune-nutritional marker for survival prediction in nasopharyngeal carcinoma

Abstract

Background

Since Immune response, nutritional status and Epstein–Barr Virus (EBV) DNA status have been confirmed to be relevant to the prognosis of patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC), we believe that the combination of these factors is of great value for improving the predictive ability. LA (lymphocytes × albumin), a novel indicator, had not been studied yet in NPC. We combined it with EBV DNA and used nomograms to increase the accuracy of prognosis.

Methods

A total of 688 NPC patients were retrospectively reviewed and further divided into training and validation cohort randomly. Kaplan–Meier analyses were used to to distinguish the different survival outcomes. Multivariate Cox analyses were used to identify the independent prognostic factors for progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). Calibration curves, concordance indexes (C-indexes) and decision curve analyses (DCA) were used to evaluate the nomograms’ predictive value.

Results

Patients with low LA and positive EBV DNA correlated with poorer 5-year PFS and OS (all P < 0.005). In multivariate Cox analyses, LA and EBV DNA were both confirmed to be independent prognostic factors for PFS and OS (all P < 0.05). Prognostic nomograms incorporating LA and EBV DNA achieved ideal C-indexes of 0.69 (95% CI: 0.65–0.73) and 0.77 (95% CI: 0.71–0.82) in the prediction of PFS and OS. Otherwise, the calibration curves and DCA curves also revealed that our nomograms had pleasant predictive power.

Conclusions

LA is a novel and powerful biomarker for predicting clinical outcomes in NPC. Our nomograms based on LA and EBV DNA can predict individual prognosis more accurately and effectively.