Assessment of methane emissions from oil, gas and coal sectors across inventories and atmospheric inversions

Abstract

Emissions from fossil fuel exploitation are a leading contributor to global anthropogenic methane emissions, but are highly uncertain. The lack of reliable estimates hinders monitoring of the progress on pledges towards methane reductions. Here we analyze methane emissions from exploitation of coal, oil and gas for major producing nations across a suite of bottom-up inventories and global inversions. Larger disagreement in emissions exists for the oil/gas sector across the inventories compared to coal, arising mostly from disparate data sources for emission factors. Moreover, emissions reported to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change are lower than other bottom-up and inversion estimates, with many countries lacking reporting in the past decades. Finally, comparison with previous global inversions, revealed a strong influence of the prior inventory on the inferred sub-sectoral emissions magnitude. This study highlights the need to improve consensus on the methodological inputs among the bottom-up inventories in order to obtain more consistent inverse modelling results at the sub-sectoral level.

Disparate data sources for emission factors at the sub-sectoral level lead to greater disagreement in estimates of methane emissions for the oil and gas sector, compared to coal, across inventories, suggests an analysis of a suite of bottom-up inventories and an ensemble of global inversions.