7 ways the labor market looks like it's in recession mode despite a low unemployment rate

The US unemployment rate has remained historically low.

But other labor market indicators show weakness similar to those seen in prior recessions.

They include job gain revisions, quits, hires, unemployment's rate of change, and more.

The US labor market has continued to flex its muscles amid a historically aggressive Federal Reserve tightening cycle.

The unemployment rate is 3.7%, not too far from an over five-decade low of 3.4% hit in April 2023.

While the headline number is strong, however, there are indications under the surface that the job market is weakening — perhaps even to a worrying degree.

Below, we've compiled six charts showing how the labor market is softening to the same degree seen in prior recessions in some ways.

1. Job gain revisions

While monthly payroll numbers have stayed positive, they are often being revised downward months after the fact.

"There have been cumulative revisions of -427,000 to the headline prints over the last 12 months, a dynamic that historically has presaged economic slowdowns," Josh Jamner, an investment strategy analyst at ClearBridge Investments, said in a January memo that included the above chart. "This...