Research on cooling load estimation through optimal hybrid models based on Naive Bayes

Abstract

Cooling load estimation is crucial for energy conservation in cooling systems, with applications like advanced air-conditioning control and chiller optimization. Traditional methods include energy simulation and regression analysis, but artificial intelligence outperforms them. Artificial intelligence models autonomously capture complex patterns, adapt, and scale with more data. They excel at predicting cooling loads influenced by various factors, like weather, building materials, and occupancy, leading to dynamic, responsive predictions and energy optimization. Traditional methods simplify real-world complexities, highlighting artificial intelligence’s role in precise cooling load forecasting for energy-efficient building management. This study evaluates Naive Bayes-based models for estimating building cooling load consumption. These models encompass a single model, one optimized with the Mountain Gazelle Optimizer and another optimized with the horse herd optimization algorithm. The training dataset consists of 70% of the data, which incorporates eight input variables related to the geometric and glazing characteristics of the buildings. Following the validation of 15% of the dataset, the performance of the remaining 15% is tested. Based on analysis through evaluation metrics, among the three candidate models, Naive Bayes optimized with the Mountain Gazelle Optimizer (NBMG) demonstrates remarkable accuracy and stability, reducing prediction errors by an average of 18% and 31% compared to the other two models (NB and NBHH) and achieving a maximum R² value of 0.983 for cooling load prediction.