BUSINESS CYCLES AND SEASONALITY IN THE ITALIAN CONSTRUCTION SECTOR

The construction sector has played a very relevant role in the Italian economic development and has often been considered an ideal instrument to fight recession and cyclical instability by economists and politicians. This dissertation aims at analyzing two important aspects of the sector: cyclical behaviour and seasonality.

The first chapter examines the cyclical behaviour of such variables as production, employment, unemployment, labor force and especially productivity. The general picture we obtain is that of a sector which, from a postwar situation when proved to be the most dynamic of the Italian economy, has become a braking force of the growth process, with negative average rates of growth and a constantly decreasing labor force.

The second chapter is devoted to the problem of seasonality, which represents one of the most typical aspects of this sector. In order to furnish a complete picture of this phenomenon and of its evolution over time, various types of data on employment, unemployment, labor force and total number of hours worked have been utilized. After a cursory exposition of the methodology used to analyze seasonality and an accurate description of the main findings, special attention is given to a theoretical and empirical analysis of the cyclical behaviour of the seasonality of the various segments of the labor force. The main conclusion is that the level of demand and the tension in the labor market go a long way in explaining the cyclical behaviour of seasonality both of employment and unemployment.