Abstract/Details

MODERNISATION AND THE FERTILITY TRANSITION, EGYPT: 1975

ISSA, MAHMOUD SAYED ABDOU.  University of Pennsylvania. ProQuest Dissertations Publishing, 1981. 8117795.

Abstract (summary)

The purpose of this study is to analyse recent fertility trends in Egypt, and the pattern of socioeconomic and regional differentials. The determinants of fertility change as revealed by supply-demand type of analysis are assessed. Most of the analysis is based on the data tapes of the National Fertility Survey (NFS) taken by 'CAPMAS', Egypt in 1974-75. About 15 thousand ever-married women were invterviewed, their selection was at random, and the sample was nationally representative.

Prior to World War II, Egypt had high levels of mortality and fertility and a moderate rate of population growth. Mortality began to decline after the war and fertility--according to new evidence--was actually rising. As a result the rate of population growth reached unprecedented levels. From 1962 to 1972, however, fertility fell uninterruptedly and reached the lowest level ever recorded. The NFS provides evidence that the decline was not a statistical artifact, and was partly due to the spread of deliberate fertility control, particularly in urban areas. Nuptiality changes also contributed to the decline, specifically smaller proportions of women in short durations of marriage.

In studying fertility determinants, Easterlin's 'synthesis' model is used as a frame of reference. Adoption of deliberate fertility control is seen as depending on two factors: motivation due to prospects of unwanted fertility, estimated as excess of CN (the potential number of surviving children parents would have in the absence of control) over CD (desired family size), and CR, the costs of fertility control. Each of these variables (CN, CD and CR) is in turn seen as a function of various aspects of modernization and other variables. Modernization refers to transformations in social, economic, and political organizations and in human personality commonly observed during social and economic development. The units of analysis are households and aggregations of households in 5 geographic units by place of residence (urban/rural), and region (North/South), which differ systematically in degree of modernization.

To estimate the CN component of motivation, chief reliance was on a micro-approach where a reproduction function is estimated for the natural fertility subgroup, by regressing children ever born on their direct determinants (age at marriage, fecundity, fecundability, breast-feeding and child mortality). Substituting the values of the independent variables for the regulating population into this function, one obtains estimates of CN. The result was compared with other estimates made at the macro-level by applying Bongaarts- and Coale-Trussell-type models. Demand for children (CD), was taken as equal to reported desired family size, and costs of regulation (CR) as the number and type of contraceptive methods known to the wife.

At the household level, actual adoption of fertility control was found to be equally determined by the level of motivation and costs of fertility control. At the regional level, the level of motivation and the extent of deliberate control were directly associated, and positively related to modernization of the region. Motivation was positively related to CN and negatively related to CD, with the level of motivation in each region mainly determined by CN.

The relationship found between CN, CD and CR and modernization is as follows: CN is directly related to modernization, with regional differences strongly determined by child mortality; CD and CR are inversely related to modernization. Education of the couple and urban residence have the strongest effects on the three variables, though different in nature. In general, adoption of fertility control and the associated decline in fertility is due to motivation arising from a high potential supply of children, and low desired family size and costs of fertility control.

Indexing (details)


Subject
Demographics
Classification
0938: Demographics
Identifier / keyword
Social sciences
Title
MODERNISATION AND THE FERTILITY TRANSITION, EGYPT: 1975
Author
ISSA, MAHMOUD SAYED ABDOU
Number of pages
434
Degree date
1981
School code
0175
Source
DAI-A 42/03, Dissertation Abstracts International
Place of publication
Ann Arbor
Country of publication
United States
University/institution
University of Pennsylvania
University location
United States -- Pennsylvania
Degree
Ph.D.
Source type
Dissertation or Thesis
Language
English
Document type
Dissertation/Thesis
Dissertation/thesis number
8117795
ProQuest document ID
303153622
Copyright
Database copyright ProQuest LLC; ProQuest does not claim copyright in the individual underlying works.
Document URL
https://www.proquest.com/docview/303153622