Abstract/Details

DEMOGRAPHIC, ECONOMIC, AND SOCIAL FACTORS IN THE EVOLUTION OF FINNISH FERTILITY 1722-1978

LUTZ, WOLFGANG.  University of Pennsylvania. ProQuest Dissertations Publishing, 1983. 8406691.

Abstract (summary)

The study tries to test some hypotheses in the field of historical demography and demographic transition analysis on long annual time series from Finland: the hypothesis of a nuptiality transition prior to the transition in marital fertility in Western Europe occurring in recent centuries; the natural fertility hypothesis; the adjustment hypothesis concerning the onset of family limitation; the child replacement hypothesis; the industrialization hypothesis, and the threshold hypothesis in the secular fertility decline.

To reconstruct the age patterns of marriage for the period 1751-1880 a simulation model is developed which uses national series of births, marriages, and deaths in combination with the overall proportions married given for 'census years'. The simulation results in estimates of the parameters of A. Coale's model schedule of first marriage frequencies by making certain assumptions about the comparability of cohort and period age schedules of nuptiality. The results suggest a transition toward the 'European Marriage Pattern' during the second half of the 18th century.

The above results allowed the calculation of the 'Princeton Indices' of overall fertility, marital and illegitimate fertility, and proportions married. A modification of Coale's 'index of family limitation' (m) makes it possible to use overall age specific fertility rates (given since 1776) to study the appearance of family limitation, which in Finland happened around 1910.

An investigation into the causal relationship between child mortality and fertility by means of cross-lagged correlation analysis and distributed-lag models gives no evidence of child replacement strategies before 1918, but suggests a 'reversed causality' with high fertility leading to high infant mortality in the subsequent years during the premodern period. Literary evidence supports this 'fertility stress' argument.

A multivariate model of analysis differentiating between short-term and long-term effects puts together demographic variables and selected socio-economic indicators for the period 1871-1978. Cultural development turns out to be the key variable during the fertility transition. Analysis of residuals reveals a pattern of cyclical fluctuations in fertility which cannot be explained by socio-economic changes. Finally, the Finnish case considered within the framework of the European fertility transition proves that industrialization per se does not bring about the secular fertility decline, since in Finland it took place in an 85% agricultural society.

Indexing (details)


Subject
Demographics
Classification
0938: Demographics
Identifier / keyword
Social sciences
Title
DEMOGRAPHIC, ECONOMIC, AND SOCIAL FACTORS IN THE EVOLUTION OF FINNISH FERTILITY 1722-1978
Author
LUTZ, WOLFGANG
Number of pages
348
Degree date
1983
School code
0175
Source
DAI-A 44/12, Dissertation Abstracts International
Place of publication
Ann Arbor
Country of publication
United States
University/institution
University of Pennsylvania
University location
United States -- Pennsylvania
Degree
Ph.D.
Source type
Dissertation or Thesis
Language
English
Document type
Dissertation/Thesis
Dissertation/thesis number
8406691
ProQuest document ID
303170327
Copyright
Database copyright ProQuest LLC; ProQuest does not claim copyright in the individual underlying works.
Document URL
https://www.proquest.com/docview/303170327