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Abstract
The field of indirect estimation has relied heavily on stable population theory. We take this theory as a starting point from which we derive extensions such that the assumption of stability is no longer necessary. Thus all the relationships implied by the formula representing the stable age distribution may be analogously derived for the general case of destabilized populations. The relations among the age distribution of living persons and deaths, and age-specific rates of growth, provide the basis for the several indirect estimation techniques discussed in this dissertation. These techniques are used to test for the consistency between population and death data as well as within each source of data.
We apply these methods to data from Sweden, West Germany, and England and Wales. The quality of data from these countries is known to be very good, and thus application of these methods to such data is used, in turn, to assess the empirical performance of the methods. Once the quality of performance is established, the techniques are applied to data on United States native white males and females for the period 1960 to 1970. When we allowed for the existence of not unreasonable differentials in mortality by nativity status, apparent inconsistencies in the data were almost entirely resolved.
Using these methods, we are much more capable now of inferring true mortality patterns from demographic data, patterns which in the past had been obscured by, and misidentified due to, extreme misstatement in the reporting of ages of the living and age at death. Further possible applications of this methodology are plentiful and include estimating the completeness of death registration, discerning patterns of age misstatement, obtaining a reasonable estimate of the birth rate in a population, and correcting an age distribution for differential enumeration and age misstatement. The methodology discussed in this dissertation should serve as a step toward the accurate appraisal of the demographic situations in countries whose populations deviate dramatically from stability.
