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Abstract
The generalization of stable population relations to any population provides the basis for the indirect estimation techniques for analyzing adult mortality data discussed in this dissertation. The fundamental relations among the age distribution and age-specific growth rates, and among the age distribution of living persons and deaths, and age-specific growth rates are analogous to the corresponding relations in stable populations. They express the rate of increase in the number at age a as a function of age instead of treating it as a constant.
We applied those techniques to data from Chile (1952-70) and Argentina (1960-70). We chose Chile because we wanted to test its unique pattern of mortality by age estimated by the United Nations on the basis that it did not fit any of the four Coale-Demeny Regional Model Life Tables. We chose Argentina because it can be considered to have reliable data for adult ages and we wanted to assess the empirical performance of the methods.
The construction of life tables from census age distributions and growth rates shows, for both countries, the need for corrections to intercensal growth rates. There was more apparent inconsistency between population and death data in Chile, mainly due to misstatement of age (overstatement and errors of rejuvenation) commonly present in Latin-American censuses. Argentinian census and death data appeared to be highly consistent implying good age reporting by five-year age groups.
The analysis of mortality from registered deaths by age (adjusted at old ages) and adjusted intercensal growth rates gives, for both countries, convincing results of the existence of an age pattern of relatively low mortality among younger males. This pattern agrees with the United Nations Chilean pattern. However, female data for both countries show an age pattern of mortality that closely follows the Coale-Demeny West Model.
Further applications of the methodology used here are very promising. We are more able now to get accurate demographic estimates for countries whose populations are open, deviate from stability and/or have deficient data.
