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Abstract
The overall purpose of this research was to illustrate how optimal crop varieties for farmers could be selected using an economic decision theory framework and to compare these selections with those resulting from common selection rules.
Theoretical models were developed to determine if the two methods of selection identified different 'optimal' varieties given different assumptions about producer behavior, characteristics of the production functions, and definitions of risk. It was concluded that such differences could cause the two selection methods to produce radically different genotype orderings.
The two methods of selection were also empirically compared using yield data from irrigated corn and dryland sorghum variety tests conducted by the University of Nebraska and data from fertility studies conducted by the University of Minnesota and the Pioneer Hi-Bred Seed Company. Consistency of varietal rankings between the two methods depended on which crop was being considered, the behavioral assumptions of the producer and how risk was defined. Characteristics of yield response to nitrogen had little impact on the consistency of rankings between the two methods of selection.
The major results of this research indicated that economic decision theory, may in certain situations identify 'optimal' crop varieties which are entirely different from the varieties obtained using standard selection methods.
