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Passing minimum-competency tests (MCTs) is a requirement for high school graduation is 21 states, including California. This study examines the feasibility of a proposed alternative to blanket MCT. The proposed alternative is a screening and exemption procedure which (a) uses existing student achievement data to predict MCT scores, and (b) exempts from taking MCTs those students who are proficient in basic skills. Alternatively, students whose predicted scores indicate they are not proficient can be required to participate in remedial instruction and subsequent MCT administrations. The study also includes an examination of the technical, organizational, and political functions that MCT serves and how these functions may affect acceptance of the screening and exemption procedure.
MCT scores are predicted using scores from content-relevant subtests of norm-referenced tests in multiple regression models. Exemption cut scores are established empirically or are equal to actual MCT cut scores. Evaluations of the prediction procedure and its feasibility focus on decision accuracy; that is, percentages of cases in which predicted MCT pass-fail status agrees with actual MCT pass-fail status. Hit, miss, and especially, false positive classification rates are examined in experimental and cross-validation samples and for several exemption but scores. Potential acceptance of the proposed screening and exemption procedure is evaluated within a context provided by the institutional view of school organization, MCT functions identified in educational measurement and policy literature, and structured interviews with eight state and local educators.
Decision accuracy in these data sets, as indicated by percentages of false positive classification errors, tends to be either (a) unacceptably high, but with large percentages of students exempted from MCTs; or (b) acceptably low, but with small percentages of students exempted from MCTs. The eight interview respondents identified potential logistical, logical, and political problems associated with the proposed screening and exemption procedure. However, the literature reviews and other responses in the interviews suggest that the proposed procedure could be considered for implementation. The procedure's viability is likely to be highest in situations where the appropriateness of data for predicting MCT scores can be improved and decision accuracy increased.