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Abstract
This dissertation analyzes the effects of the United States Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) on imports from beneficiary Less Developed Countries (LDCs) from three perspectives. Three separate essays are written. All are ex post analyses. The first describes the effects of the U.S. GSP according to (a variant of) the shift-share approach. An attempt is made to measure the growth in U.S. imports from the beneficiaries between two points in time. Quantifiable causes of this growth are subtracted from the overall growth. The residual then is attributed to the GSP effect.
The second essay explains changes in market shares of individual beneficiaries of the U.S. preference scheme. A cross-section statistical analysis is used to explain changes in market shares. The effect of a change (increase) in tariff caused by U.S. competitive need exclusion (CNE) on beneficiaries' market shares is especially considered. Other factors which influence the beneficiaries' market shares are also considered. The latter variables may provide a basis for the "graduation" of LDCs from the scheme. Finally, the third essay makes a gravity model estimate of the effects of the U.S. scheme of preferences. A cross-sectional statistical analysis across countries is used to explain bilateral trade flows between the U.S. and its beneficiaries, as well as other trade partners. In an attempt to estimate the effect of the U.S. GSP scheme on the beneficiaries, ad valorem tariff rates and GSP dummy variables are included in the model developed. The tariff variable is used to indicate the trade creation effect of the GSP, while the GSP dummy variable approximates the trade diversion effect of the GSP.
