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Abstract
This thesis evaluates the Bongaarts and Hobcraft-Little methods of estimating the impact of the proximate determinants of fertility. Bongaarts and Hobcraft and Little provide evidence to confirm the accuracy of their methods; however, since we cannot observe what the methods estimate, (i.e., what fertility would equal in the absence of these inhibiting factors) their evidence can only be circumstantial.
Using Monte Carlo techniques we simulated reproductive histories of a population of women experiencing specified amounts of nonmarriage, contraceptive use, induced abortions, and lactation. While the simulations do not attempt to incorporate the innumerable complexities of fertility behaviors, the incorporation of even the simplest family building strategy leads to the unambiguous conclusion that the models yield very poor estimates of the fertility reducing impacts of marriage delay, contraceptive use, and induced abortions. These results are not intended and should not be used to provide "adjustment factors" to estimates of C$\sb{\rm m}$, C$\sb{\rm c}$, and C$\sb{\rm a}$ to bring them closer to the "truth". Simulations incorporating more intricacies of human behavior would certainly produce different quantitative results, but the qualitative findings of this thesis would still hold because the assumptions underlying the methods are too heroic and simplistic. These results should serve as a sober warning to those who compute the indices and believe that they adequately measure the fertility reducing impact of the proximate determinants of fertility.
