Race and ethnicity in housing: Turnover in New York City, 1978-1987

Turnover in individual housing units, a direct result of household mobility decisions and choices, represents the micro-level dynamic underlying the broader process of neighborhood transition. Moreover, since residence largely determines one's participation in social networks, variation in the prevalence of and locations describing racial/ethnic turnover can be said to reflect the structure of social interaction within the urban environment. In this study, multinomial logistic regression models identify the household and housing unit characteristics that predict the likelihood of housing turnovers between non-Hispanic whites, non-Hispanic blacks, and Hispanics in New York City during 1978-87. Indicators of borough location and subarea composition emerge as the strongest and most consistently significant predictors of turnover net of household preferences and purchasing power, underscoring the persistence of structural forces that constrain the housing options available to specific racial and ethnic groups. More generally, that the results essentially mirror the findings of landmark studies of neighborhood transition undertaken by Duncan and Duncan (1957) and Taeuber and Taeuber (1965) indicates that little progress has been made toward achieving widespread equality in the urban housing market, nor toward removing fundamental obstacles to frequent and informal social contact between racial and ethnic groups.