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Abstract
Models have helped us understand pathogen and disease dynamics, project scenarios about future outcomes, and inform public health responses.1,2 Global events that have influenced the growth of modelling capacity in academic and public health agencies include the HIV pandemic, the 2003 SARS outbreak, the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic, and the pandemic of COVID-19 in 2020.3,4 Outside of pandemics, models are increasingly being used to inform responses to emerging disease threats such as antimicrobial resistance and climate-sensitive infectious diseases.5,6 The COVID-19 pandemic saw an extensive use of epidemiological models to inform planning and responses across multiple government and private sectors nationally and globally. MJ reports funding paid to their institution from UK Research and Innovation (UKRI), UK National Institute for Health Research, Research Councils UK, the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, WHO, the European Commission, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Taskforce for Global Health, and the Wellcome Trust. JRCP reports a grant paid to their institution from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; consulting fees from the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), the Netherlands; travel support from RIVM, the Royal Society of London, and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; and is an unpaid member of the Ministerial Advisory Committee on COVID-19, South Africa, the Strategic Advisory Board, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, and the International Clinics on Infectious Disease Dynamics and Data. The members of the Lancet Commission on Strengthening the Use of Epidemiological Modelling of Emerging and Pandemic Infectious Diseases are Wanrudee Isaranuwatchai (Co-Chair), Edwine Barasa, Crystal Chua, Hannah Clapham, Alex R Cook, Zulma M Cucunuba, Saudamini Vishwanath Dabak, Janan J Dietrich, Ruth R Faden, David L Heymann, Sarin K C, Jennifer Kealy, Gabriel M Leung, Stephen S Lim, Marc Lipsitch, Rachel Lowe, Jodie McVernon, Gautam I Menon, Chris Erwin G Mercado, Juliet R C Pulliam, Chayapat Rachatan, Yot Teerawattananon, Erica Thompson, S M Thumbi, and Mark Jit (Co-Chair) Health Economics Research Unit, KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Nairobi, Kenya (EB); Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, Tahir Foundation Building, National University of Singapore, Singapore (ARC, CC, HC, CEGM); Faculty of Medicine, Pontificia Universidad Javeriana, Hospital Universitario San Ignacio, Bogotá, Colombia (ZMC); African Social Sciences Unit of Research and Evaluation (ASSURE), Health Sciences Faculty, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa (JJD); Berman Institute of Bioethics, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA (RRF); Health Intervention and Technology Assessment Program, Department of Health, Ministry of Public Health, Muang, Nonthaburi, Thailand (WI, YT, SVD, SKC, CR); London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK (MJ, DLH, JK, RL); University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China (GML); Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Population Health Building/Hans Rosling Center, Seattle, WA, USA (SSL); Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA (ML); Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC) and Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies (ICREA), Barcelona, Spain (RL); Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, VIC, Australia (JM); Ashoka University, Rajiv Gandhi Education City, National Capital Region P.O. Rai, Sonepat Haryana, India (GIM); Center for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis, University of Nairobi, Institute of Tropical and Infectious Disease, Faculty of Health Sciences Campus, Kenyatta Hospital Compound, Nairobi, Kenya (SMT); Institute of Immunology and Infection Research, School of Biological Sciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK (SMT); Paul G Allen School for Global Health, Washington State University, Pullman, WA, USA (SMT); South African DSI-NRF Centre of Excellence in Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa (JRCP);