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Abstract
This report aims to analyse and forecast the apparent consumption of sawn soft- and hardwood from the perspective of different end-uses in Germany up to the year 2000. This is done separately for the Federal Republic of Germany (BRD) and the former Democratic Republic of Germany (DDR) due mainly to different data conditions.
The sawnwood market in the former BRD for the period 1970-1990 is described by Flinkman (1993) and is used as a database for econometric analyses of various end-use sectors. The estimation of causal models for subsectors, based on intermediate demand theory and the theory of combined factor and consumer demand, is made by applying Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) methods. Projections for exogenous variables (price, costs and other macros) are generated by Vector Auto Regression (VAR) processes. Two compositions of 19 exogenous variable projections, Base I and Base II alternatives, are then used to generate alternative forecasts for different subsectors.
By aggregation across the subsector projections the total average sawnwood consumption in the former BRD is forecast to be about 14-15 million m$\sp3$ annually to the year 2000, which fits with the consumption level of the 70s and the 80s. The main difference between the base alternatives is that the economic fluctuations occur in different time periods. By the end of the 90s no more than about 50% of the apparent consumption will occur in the construction sector, where 50% of the sawnwood consumption will be utilized for RMI-purposes.
For the former DDR the market of sawnwood from different end-use perspectives from 1970 to 1990 is described. Projections for end-use sectors and by aggregation across subsectors are given to the year 2000. The total apparent consumption of sawn soft- and hardwood was about 3.5-4.0 million m$\sp3$ annually before the unification of Germany in 1990. After the unification consumption in the DDR totally collapsed. However, according to projections the earlier level will be reattained at the end of the 20th century.