A generalised decision support system for contaminated site management

This thesis describes a methodology for decision making on the complex questions relating to contaminated land management. Many contaminated land questions appear intractable and decisions on such problems are often inadequate or are avoided altogether. A major environmental dilemma for Government and the community has resulted. There is a need for better decision making on contaminated land questions. It is suggested that problems relating to contaminated land can be beneficially approached by the systematic application of consistency and rigour to supplement the decision process. This thesis proposes a new systems analysis methodology which applies these attributes as a solution to this problem.

The proposed systems analysis methodology utilises a new idea-classification system which supplements, amplifies and quantifies the intuitive approach of the user. Using the system allows a logical recording of facts. A quantified, defensible, audited record of the decision path decided upon is produced. The process significantly enhances previous attempts at decision analysis on contaminated land. It neutralises emotive blocks and promotes objective and synergistic group discussion.

Uncertainty creates a major problem for many aspects of contaminated site management. The proposed methodology utilises Monte-Carlo and sensitivity analysis to supply a way of systematically modeling this uncertainty and thus provide realism in the comparative evaluation of alternative decision outcomes.

An application from a contaminated site is described in detail to demonstrate the methodology. This application has been written in Microsoft Access.