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Abstract
This dissertation is a preliminary investigation on the origins and use of counterfactual reasoning and writing in Graeco-Roman historiography. Through close analysis of historical texts, this dissertation demonstrates that counterfactual is a powerful tool in the factual reconstruction and qualitative assessment of the past in antiquity. Counterfactual reasoning derived from various social activities: divination, medicine, political deliberation, forensic debate, etc. It underwent further development in ancient historiography. Different ancient historians contribute to it in their specific way. In Herodotus, counterfactual is a strong narrative technique to highlight the intricacy of human affairs and uncertainty of human life, which further leads to his moral teaching of moderation. Thucydides greatly improves the use of counterfactual reasoning. His explicit counterfactual is deeply embedded in his narrative and has reached a high level of methodological rigorousness. Besides, he uses many types of tacit counterfactuals to imply alternate possibilities in his narrative of the Peloponnesian War. In Polybius, there is more systematic theorization of the utility of history, and how this theorization unconsciously reveals its organic connection with counterfactual thinking. His frequent invoking of [special characters omitted] pushes counterfactual reasoning to a new stage. In Livy and Plutarch, counterfactual is further combined with the antithesis [special characters omitted] (fortuna/virtus) and becomes a power tool in the assessment of the historical significance of individuals and collectivities. Their moral synkrisis is also deeply informed by counterfactual reasoning. Finally, the dissertation also spells out counterfactual elements in the rules of proof in the ancient rhetoric, especially the Roman rhetoric, and suggests that because of the close relationship between rhetoric and historiography in the antiquity, the findings in ancient rhetoric can shed lights on the study of ancient historiography. This dissertation not only confirms that ancient historians use counterfactual like many modern historians do, but also spells out their own understanding of this research tool and narrative technique.
