ABSTRACT
Objective: The present work aimed to describe the Climatological Water Balance (BHC), carry out the Climate Classification (CC) and evaluate the Empirical Probability (EP) of rainfall occurrence for the region of Tangará da Serra - MT.
Theoretical Frame: This study used the following main citations as a theoretical basis: National Water Agency (ANA) and National Institute of Meteorology (INMET), source of climate data; Thornthwaite & Mather (1955) for the climatological water balance methodology; Thornthwaite (1948) and Koppen (1900) for climate classification; and Thom (1966) for the methodology of probability of occurrence and return period of rain.
Method: To carry out the study, a series of 31 years of climate data was used, covering the period from 1989 to 2019, obtained from the National Water Agency (ANA) and the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET). Filling gaps in the data was carried out using the Regional Weighting method, according to the methodology of Mello et al. (2017). The climatological water balance was estimated according to Thornthwaite & Mather (1955). The climate classification was obtained using the methodologies of Thornthwaite (1948) and Koppen (1900). The probability of occurrence and the period of return of rain were achieved using the methods of Thom (1966).
Results and Conclusions: Through studies carried out, it was found that the average annual precipitation in Tangará is 1603 mm and the average annual air temperature is 24.5 °C. The months of May, June, July, August and September present a water deficit, while in the months of December, January, February, March and April there is a water surplus. According to Thornthwaite's methodology, the region has a humid climate, with moderate water deficiency in winter, megathermal and with potential evapotranspiration in the summer less than 48% of the annual potential evapotranspiration, whereas according to Koppen's methodology, the location was classified as megathermal or tropical with drought in the winter. The probability of rainfall less than the maximum average of 47.7 mm is 93.3% and its return time is approximately 15 years.
Implications of the research: This research is classified as of great importance for the purposes of the Department of Agricultural Engineering of the State University of Mato Grosso, Campus of Nova Mutum and Tangará da Serra - MT, as well as for the entire academic and scientific community and interested rural producers, in climatic data, water balance and climate of the studied region.
Originality and value: This study aimed to show the academic and scientific community and rural producers the behavior of climatic variables throughout the year in the municipality of Tangará da Serra - MT, where this information can be used for agricultural planning in the region and also serve as a basis for future studies.
Keywords: Agriculture, Planning, Precipitation, Air Temperature.
RESUMO
Objetivo: O presente trabalho teve o objetivo de descrever o Balanço Hídrico Climatológico (BHC), realizar a Classificação Climática (CC) e avaliar a Probabilidade Empírica (PE) de ocorrência de chuvas para a região de Tangará da Serra - MT.
Referencial teórico: Este estudo utilizou como base teórica as seguintes principais citações: Agência Nacional das Águas (ANA) e Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET), fonte dos dados climáticos; Thornthwaite & Mather (1955) pela metodologia do balanço hídrico climatológico; Thornthwaite (1948) e Koppen (1900) pela classificação climática; e Thom (1966) pela metodologia de probabilidade de ocorrência e período de retorno de chuvas.
Método: Para a realização do estudo foi utilizada uma série de 31 anos de dados climáticos referentes ao período de 1989 à 2019, obtidos da Agência Nacional das Águas (ANA) e Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET). O preenchimento de falhas nos dados foi realizado pelo método da Ponderação Regional, conforme metodologia de Mello et al. (2017). O balanço hídrico climatológico foi estimado de acordo com Thornthwaite & Mather (1955). A classificação climática foi obtida utilizando as metodologias de Thornthwaite (1948) e Koppen (1900). A probabilidade de ocorrência e o período de retorno de chuvas foram alcançados empregando-se os métodos de Thom (1966).
Resultados e conclusão: Por meio dos estudos realizados verificou-se que a precipitação média anual de Tangará é de 1603 mm e a temperatura do ar média anual é de 24,5 °C. Os meses de maio, junho, julho, agosto e setembro apresentam déficit hídrico, enquanto que, nos meses de dezembro, janeiro, fevereiro, março e abril ocorre excedente hídrico. Segundo a metodologia de Thornthwaite a região apresenta clima úmido, com deficiência hídrica moderada no inverno, megatérmico e com evapotranspiração potencial no verão menor 48% da evapotranspiração potencial anual, já pela metodologia de Koppen, o local foi classificado como megatérmico ou tropical com seca no inverno. A probabilidade de ocorrência de chuva menor que a média máxima 47,7 mm é de 93,3% e seu tempo de retorno é de aproximadamente 15 anos.
Implicações da pesquisa: A presente pesquisa classifica-se como de grande importância para os propósitos do Departamento de Engenharia Agronômica da Universidade do Estado de Mato Grosso, Campus de Nova Mutum e Tangará da Serra - MT, bem como, para toda comunidade acadêmica, científica e produtores rurais interessados em dados climáticos, balanço hídrico e clima da região estudada.
Originalidade/valor: Este estudo almejou mostrar à comunidade acadêmica, cientifica e produtores rurais o comportamento de variáveis climáticas ao longo do ano no município de Tangará da Serra - MT, onde, estas informações poderão ser utilizadas para o planejamento agrícola da região e, ainda, servir como base para estudos futuros.
Palavras-chave: Agricultura, Planejamento, Precipitação, Temperatura do Ar.
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)
1 INTRODUCTION
The increase in population, associated with the expansion of the farming, industrial and energy sectors, has led to a steady and considerable growth in global demand for water, making this resource increasingly scarce (Silva et al., 2017). In Brazil, in some regions, factors such as low rainfall rates, irregularity of its regime, high air temperatures, low water storage capacities in the soil, among others, contribute to reduced water availability (ANA, 2019). Pieper and Pinheiro (2020), state that the period of drought diagnosed, in the months of September and early October, in the state of Mato Grosso, had an extremely negative impact on the soybean sowing rhythm in the 2014/2015 crop.
Miranda (2008) emphasizes that climate is considered one of the most important components of the environment, because from the knowledge of it it is possible to identify the best culture to be implanted in a given location. To this end, Thornthwaite (1948) developed a Climate Classification System (SCC) that allows to characterize efficiently the climate of a region, whose methodology is sensitive to rainfall totals and air temperature, added to the information generated through the water balance (Passos; Zambrzycki; Pereira, 2017).
The rainfall pattern is the factor that most influences environmental conditions, because in addition to the direct effect on the water balance, it indirectly affects other variables, such as air and soil temperature, relative air humidity and solar radiation, which, acting together, act as basic factors that aid plant growth (Dallacort et al., 2011).
In the agricultural sector, among many functions, water is responsible for the osmotic control of plants, as well as for carrying nutrients from the soil to the root system of plants. According to Pimentel (2004), the distribution of the plants on the earth's surface depends more on the availability of water at each location than on any other factor. Excess or lack of water available to plants may limit production (Rabbit, 2014).
The method for estimating the water balance developed by Thornthwaite and Mather (1955), makes it possible to monitor water in the soil, both on a daily and monthly scale. It is a method used as an agricultural strategic planning instrument, in the scope of water resources management (Passos; Zambrzycki; Pereira, 2017; Souza et al., 2013).
Santos, Hernandez and Rossetti (2010), state that the water balance is a first assessment of the climate of a region. Where the water count of a soil layer is determined and dry (water deficiency) and wet (water surplus) periods are defined for a given location. Making it possible then to identify areas where crops can be exploited in order to achieve greater effectiveness. Thus, they concluded that the knowledge of the variables that make up the water balance favors agricultural and livestock planning and production control practices.
However, Caetano and Barbosa (2019) state that not only the information on the distribution of rainfall obtained in the Water Balance is important for a locality. But also, knowledge of the probability of occurrence of extreme events, such as daily and monthly maximum rainfall, which can cause major problems and/or tragedies in both agricultural and urban areas (Saboya et al., 2022).
From this, the objective of this work was to carry out the description of the climatological water balance (BHC) proposed by Thornthwaite and Mather (1955) and the climatic classification (CC) by the methods of Thornthawaite (1948) and Koppen (1900) and to evaluate the Empirical Probability (PE) of occurrence of rainfall for the region of Tangará da Serra - MT.
2 MATERIAL AND METHODS
The BHC and the climatological classification were carried out for the municipality of Tangará da Serra - MT (Figure 1). The municipality is situated between the parallels 14° 35' 35" and 14° 39' 40" South and between the meridians 57° 31' 54" and 57° 26' 14" West. The climatological classification, according to Fernandes et al. (2012), by Koppen's methodology (1900), is tropical humid megatthermal (Aw). According to the IBGE (2020), the territory of Tangará da Serra is 11,636,976 km2 and the total estimated population is 105,711 inhabitants.
The survey of the rainfall stations of the municipality of Tangará da Serra - MT, took place through research carried out on the website of the National Water Agency (ANA). The station found for this municipality was code 01457000, named Tapirapuä, with data consisting up to the year 2006. For the survey of the air temperature data, the research was carried out through the website of the National Meteorology Institute (INMET), whose station found for the municipality was the automatic station of code A902.
Both were based on the period from 01/01/1989 to 31/12/2019, totaling a series of 31 years. The data was organized in spreadsheets, where it was noted that in both the meteorological and pluviometric stations of the municipality there were considerable deficiencies in the presentation of the daily data.
Therefore, it was necessary to fill in these gaps, so that it was possible to obtain an uninterrupted series of information. This was done through the Regional Weighting method, which is given by Eq. 1 (Mello et al., 2017).
... (1)
Where:
PY - the failing post of interest;
Ym - average precipitation of the post of interest;
PX1, PX2 and PX3 - neighboring stations containing information in the time range where the post of interest is faulty;
Xml, Xm2 and Xm3 - averages of the neighboring posts; and 1/3 - is by using three posts to do the filling, if it were four posts, it would be 1/4 and so on.
Tables 1 and 2 show the characteristics of the stations used to fill in the daily faults found at the station of interest.
For the calculation of the BHC, a value of 100 millimeters was considered for the Soil Water Storage Capacity (CAD), taking into consideration the types of soils and vegetation of the region, according to the methodology of Thornthwaite & Mather (1955). Tabular evapotranspiration (TTE) and correction (Cor) have tabulated data, whose values are obtained as a function of the average annual air temperature and monthly or daily air temperature and, as a function of latitude, respectively (Camargo, 1962). From the precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (ETP) values it was possible to calculate the real evapotranspiration (ETR), the soil water storage (ARM), the deficit (DEF) and the water surplus (EXC).
The climatic classification, by the methodology of Thornthwaite (1948), was carried out through the water indices (HI), Eq. (2); Aridity (la), Eq. (3); and humidity (lu), Eq. (4); and also by means of the thermal climate subtype (SCT), Eq. (5) Determined by equations 2, 3, 4 and 5.
... (2)
... (3)
... (4)
... (5)
Where:
EXC - water surplus, mm;
ETP - potential evapotranspiration, mm;
DEF - water deficit, mm;
Ih - water index, %;
Iu - humidity index, %;
la - aridity index, %;
SCT - thermal climate subtype, %.
The climatic classification carried out by the Koppen model (1900), on the other hand, was obtained by means of a table developed by the author, which needs information on the values of the air temperature of the coldest month, average annual air temperature, monthly precipitation, monthly cumulative precipitation, precipitation of the driest month, precipitation of the driest month of summer and precipitation of the driest month of winter, to arrive at the result.
The probability of occurrence, Eq. (6); and the payback period, Eq. (7); they were obtained using the methodology of Thom (1966).
... (6)
... (7)
Where:
P - probability of occurrence (in equation 5 in percentage, in equation 6 in decimal);
m - the sequence number corresponding to the position of the critical value;
n - total data;
T - period of occurrence, in years.
3 RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS
The results obtained through calculations of the climate water balance (CWB) are described in Table 3.
The average air temperature (Figure 2) and the coefficient of variation estimated for the municipality of Tangará da Serra were 24.5 °C and 4.2%, respectively. The months with the highest average monthly air temperature were September, at 26.1 °C, and October, at 25.8 °C. The months with the lowest average air temperature were June, at 23.0 °C, and May and July, at 23.1 °C. Souza et al. (2013) performed the BHC calculations and climate classification for some cities in the state of Mato Grosso and found annual average air temperature values for Cuiaba, the state capital, of 26.8 °C. They observed that the month with the highest average air temperature in the place was December, with 28.1 °C and the coldest month found, was June, with an average air temperature of 24.1 °C.
The variation from 2.3 °C to more, in the annual average temperature of the air of the capital, can be explained due to the difference in altitude between the two locations. According to Silva, Carvalho and Dallacort (2020), Tangará da Serra is at an altitude of 321.5 meters above sea level, while Cuiaba is at an altitude of 165 meters (Rocha et al., 2015), which is equivalent to a difference of 156.5 meters. According to Fritzsons, Wrege and Mantovani (2015), the ratio of air temperature to altitude in tropical and subtropical regions is notably important, because differences in altitude of a few hundred meters can lead to significant changes in climate, soil formation and, consequently, in the adaptation of animals and plants and in fitness for various land use systems, among them agriculture and livestock. In addition, the temperature difference between these regions can also be related to the forms of land use and occupation.
With this, it is understood that the knowledge of the variation of the temperature of the air in each place is of extreme importance for agricultural planning. Because this variable assists in the management of crops, since it exerts influence on plant development, depending on the requirements of each one (Fenner et al., 2014).
The volume of local precipitation has a significant variety over the months (Figure 2). The highest monthly averages were found in January, with 252 mm and February, with 286 mm, in contrast, the months of June, with 19 mm, July with 6 mm and August, with 21 mm, presented the lowest averages.
The average annual rainfall for the municipality of Tangará da Serra was 1603 mm and, through the series analyzed, it can be noted that the rainiest year, within the period studied, was 2009, with the total accumulated of 2645 mm, while the year with the lowest rainfall was 1999, with a total accumulated of 1014 mm. The rainy season of the region is concentrated in the months from October to April, reaching about 90% of the total annual precipitation.
Guimarães et al. (2016), find for the municipality of Cruz das Almas - BA, a variation of precipitation of 714.7 mm in the year 2012 and of 1492.8 mm in the year 1989. Where the average of the driest years was 842.3 mm the average of the wettest years was around 1138.1 mm. They also identified that the rainy season of the region is concentrated in the months of March to August, accumulating about 60% of the total annual precipitation.
Rodrigues et al. (2009) report that Cruz das Almas has an altitude of 225 meters, which indicates a difference of approximately 100 meters less than the place of study. According to Cassettari and Queiroz (2020), regions with higher altitudes contribute to higher incidence of winds, which are moisture carriers and therefore contribute to the rainfall regime of a region, which can justify the fact that Tangará da Serra has a higher average rainfall over the years. In addition, other factors, such as latitude, maritimacy, and continentality, may also influence the amount and distribution of rainfall.
The potential evapotranspirative rate of the municipality of Tangará da Serra reached the average of 1318 mm, ranging from 84 mm in June to 125 mm in December. From May to October, the evapotranspiration potential proved to be greater than the precipitation potential and, according to Araujo (2011), this is why the water deficit occurs.
The storage of water in the soil was greatest in the range of the months from November to May. In the months of July to October this storage varied between 3 and 17 mm, which according to Passos, Zambrzycki and Pereira (2017), is not enough for the agricultural contribution, thus showing that irrigation, in the drought period, is a tool of extreme importance for ensuring production in greater and better quantity and quality.
In Figure 3 it is possible to observe that there is a water deficit in the months of May, June, July, August, September and October. From May onwards, when the dry season begins, the process of removing the water stored in the soil takes place, which is intensified in August, September and October. Although the rainy season starts in October, it is only from November that the process of replenishing water in the soil begins and it is at this moment that the potential evapotranspiration again equals the real evapotranspiration, this process occurs until the capacity of water storage in the soil is reached. After this, that is, from December to April, there is a surplus of water (Figure 3).
For the city of Chapadinha - MA, Passos, Zambrzycki and Pereira (2016), reported that the period of replenishment of water in the soil occurs in the months of January and February, because according to the study made by these authors, although not so significant, in the month of December occur the first higher rainfall in the region, which decreases the water deficit and contributes to the process of replenishment.
Table 4 shows the probability of occurrence (P) of rainfall lower than the averages found for Tangará and the return period (PR) of minimum, average and maximum rainfall for the municipality, as well as the probability of not raining over the months. In July, the average rainfall recorded was only 4 mm, and the probability of even less rain in the same month exceeds 50%. It is also noted that for the same month the probability of occurrence of rain less than the maximum average recorded of 47.7 mm is 93.3% and the return period for the same average rain is 15 years.
Pizzato et al. (2012) performed the calculations of probability of occurrence of average rainfall for the municipality of Cáceres and concluded that the probability of occurrence of rainfall less than 41 mm in the month of July is 90%. Cáceres has a rainfall distribution very similar to that of Tangará da Serra throughout the year, presenting the drought period from May and extending until September, differing only in the amount precipitated. This similarity may justify the closeness of the results of the probability of the occurrence of rain greater than 40 mm in the most critical month of the year.
Knowledge of the likelihood of rain contributes to the assessment of a given region's potential for water resources, agriculture and urbanization. According to Bernardo et al. (2006), the likelihood of rain helps the planning of irrigation systems, thus it is possible to reduce the costs of equipment and the risk of water shortages.
The climatic classification found for Tangará da Serra, according to the Thornthwaite method, carried out by means of the indices of humidity (lu), aridity (la) and water (Ih) and also through the thermal climatic subtype, was BlwA'a', that is, a humid climate, with moderate water deficiency in the winter, megatermic and with potential evapotranspiration in the summer less 48% of the annual potential evapotranspiration. Using the methodology of Koppen (1900), which is based on the air temperature and precipitation indices, the climate classification found for the municipality under study was Aw, that is, it characterizes the place as megathermic or tropical with drought in winter.
Medeiros and Holland (2019) state that the climate classification system developed by Thornthwaite has a greater sensitivity in defining climate limits, compared to the Koppen system, as it is capable of identifying small climatic variations with greater efficiency, being more detailed and precise for the decision making in agriculture.
5 FINAL CONSIDERATIONS
The average air temperature in the municipality of Tangará da Serra is 24.5 °C, with the greatest variation occurring between June and September.
The average rainfall within the assessed period (1989-2019) is 1603 mm, of which about 90% is concentrated between October and April.
The excess water occurs in the months from December to April, while the deficiency of water begins to appear in the month of May, intensifying in the month of June and extending until the month of October, when the process of replacing water in the soil occurs.
According to the information from the BHC, by the Thornthwaite method, Tangará da Serra has a humid climate, with moderate water deficiency in winter, megathermic and with potential evapotranspiration in summer less than 48% of the annual potential evapotranspiration. This is practically repeated by applying the Koppen methodology, based on air temperature and precipitation, which presented for the municipality a megathermic or tropical climate with drought in the winter.
The probability of rain less than 4 mm in July is greater than 50% and the probability of rain less than the maximum recorded average of 47.7 mm is 93.3% and its return time is approximately 15 years.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The authors thank the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq) for the grant of the Junior Postdoctoral Scholarship (PDJ) and the Research Support Foundation of the State of Mato Grosso (FAPEMAT) for the support to the research project by means of Notice FAPEMAT/CNPq No. 001/2022 Support Program for Fixing Young Doctors in Brazil and Grant Term FAPEMAT-PRO.000074/2023.
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Abstract
Objective: The present work aimed to describe the Climatological Water Balance (BHC), carry out the Climate Classification (CC) and evaluate the Empirical Probability (EP) of rainfall occurrence for the region of Tangará da Serra - MT. Theoretical Frame: This study used the following main citations as a theoretical basis: National Water Agency (ANA) and National Institute of Meteorology (INMET), source of climate data; Thornthwaite & Mather (1955) for the climatological water balance methodology; Thornthwaite (1948) and Koppen (1900) for climate classification; and Thom (1966) for the methodology of probability of occurrence and return period of rain. Method: To carry out the study, a series of 31 years of climate data was used, covering the period from 1989 to 2019, obtained from the National Water Agency (ANA) and the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET). Filling gaps in the data was carried out using the Regional Weighting method, according to the methodology of Mello et al. (2017). The climatological water balance was estimated according to Thornthwaite & Mather (1955). The climate classification was obtained using the methodologies of Thornthwaite (1948) and Koppen (1900). The probability of occurrence and the period of return of rain were achieved using the methods of Thom (1966). Results and Conclusions: Through studies carried out, it was found that the average annual precipitation in Tangará is 1603 mm and the average annual air temperature is 24.5 °C. The months of May, June, July, August and September present a water deficit, while in the months of December, January, February, March and April there is a water surplus. According to Thornthwaite's methodology, the region has a humid climate, with moderate water deficiency in winter, megathermal and with potential evapotranspiration in the summer less than 48% of the annual potential evapotranspiration, whereas according to Koppen's methodology, the location was classified as megathermal or tropical with drought in the winter. The probability of rainfall less than the maximum average of 47.7 mm is 93.3% and its return time is approximately 15 years. Implications of the research: This research is classified as of great importance for the purposes of the Department of Agricultural Engineering of the State University of Mato Grosso, Campus of Nova Mutum and Tangará da Serra - MT, as well as for the entire academic and scientific community and interested rural producers, in climatic data, water balance and climate of the studied region. Originality and value: This study aimed to show the academic and scientific community and rural producers the behavior of climatic variables throughout the year in the municipality of Tangará da Serra - MT, where this information can be used for agricultural planning in the region and also serve as a basis for future studies.