Introduction: Domestic Determinants of Southeast Asia's Relations with the United States and China

Headnote

The strategic competition between the United States and China is often seen as a rivalry confined to the two great powers alone, in which secondary states such as those in Southeast Asia have little influence and will inevitably end up "choosing sides". However, this assumption overlooks how the domestic politics of Southeast Asian states shape their foreign policies. Furthermore, if the United States or China is to attain a leadership role and legitimacy in the region, it requires the validation, support, and deference of smaller states, none of which can be achieved without consideration of domestic politics. Thus, this Special Issue-including case studies of Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Laos, Thailand and the Philippines-underscores the domestic determinants of the foreign policy of Southeast Asian states, identifying how their concerns about economic security, political legitimacy and regional stability mediate their engagement with the United States and China.

Keywords: balance-of-power politics, US-China-Southeast Asia relations, strategic diversification, domestic politics.

Southeast Asia is at a crossroads between two superpowers-the United States and China-and their intensifying strategic competition. According to the conventional narrative, Southeast Asian states possess a relatively limited and constrained set of options available to respond, especially as China's military and economic influence surges in the region.1 This Special Issue questions that assumption. Each of the six country case studies reveals that the region's foreign policy statecraft is far broader and more complex than is often assumed.

Southeast Asian states take a long-term perspective.2 Instead of fearing or resisting China's economic and geopolitical rise since the 2000s, they have mostly seen it as strategically beneficial for themselves. Indeed, it has not only helped them financially but also compelled China to bilaterally and multilaterally engage in the region, including through the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), thus incentivizing Beijing to adopt peaceful, norms-based behaviour and re-evaluate its own approach to potential regional conflicts. Moreover, an active China allows Southeast Asian states to pursue economic and geopolitical diversification, preventing them from becoming overly reliant on the United States. At the same time, it provides a strategic rationale for Southeast Asian states wanting the United States to maintain a commitment to the region, assuaging their concerns about Washington potentially abandoning them.

Thus, Southeast Asian states have not simply chosen sides, even...