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© 2024. This work is published under https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.

Abstract

This article provides high-resolution information on the projected changes in annual extreme rainfall and high- and low-streamflow events over Southeast Asia under extreme climate change. The analysis was performed using the bias-corrected result of the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) multi-model experiment for the period 1971–2050. Eleven rainfall indices were calculated, along with streamflow simulation using the PCR-GLOBWB hydrological model. The historical period 1981–2010 and the near-future period 2021–2050 were considered for this analysis. Results indicate that, over former mainland Southeast Asia, Myanmar will face more challenges in the near future. The east coast of Myanmar will experience more extreme high-rainfall conditions, while northern Myanmar will have longer dry spells. Over the Indonesian maritime continent, Sumatra and Java will suffer from an increase in dry-spell length of up to 40 %, while the increase in extreme high rainfall will occur over Borneo and mountainous areas in Papua. Based on the streamflow analysis, the impact of climate change is more prominent in a low-flow event than in a high-flow event. The majority of rivers in the central Mekong catchment, Sumatra, Peninsular Malaysia, Borneo, and Java will experience more extreme low-flow events. More extreme dry conditions in the near future are also seen from the increasing probability of future low-flow occurrences, which reaches 101 % and 90 %, on average, over Sumatra and Java, respectively. In addition, based on our results over Java and Sumatra, we found that the changes in extreme high- and low-streamflow events are more pronounced in rivers with steep hydrographs (rivers where flash floods are easily triggered), while rivers with flat hydrographs have a higher risk in terms of the probability of low-flow change.

Details

Title
A high-resolution perspective of extreme rainfall and river flow under extreme climate change in Southeast Asia
Author
Mugni Hadi Hariadi 1   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; van der Schrier, Gerard 2   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Gert-Jan Steeneveld 3   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Sutanto, Samuel J 4   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Sutanudjaja, Edwin 5   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Ratri, Dian Nur 6 ; Sopaheluwakan, Ardhasena 6 ; Albert Klein Tank 5 

 Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, the Netherlands; Meteorology and Air Quality, Wageningen University and Research (WUR), Wageningen, the Netherlands; Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG), Jakarta, Indonesia 
 Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, the Netherlands 
 Meteorology and Air Quality, Wageningen University and Research (WUR), Wageningen, the Netherlands 
 Earth Systems and Global Change, Wageningen University and Research (WUR), Wageningen, the Netherlands 
 Delta Climate Center, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands 
 Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG), Jakarta, Indonesia 
Pages
1935-1956
Publication year
2024
Publication date
2024
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
ISSN
10275606
e-ISSN
16077938
Source type
Scholarly Journal
Language of publication
English
ProQuest document ID
3050781039
Copyright
© 2024. This work is published under https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.