Content area
Abstract
This study compares the "occupational careers," defined as long-term occupational trajectories, of men between the ages of 22 and 30 from two cohorts of the National Longitudinal Surveys (NLS). The first cohort was ages 14-22 in 1966, the second cohort was ages 14-22 in 1979. The study seeks to answer three questions. First, what is the best way to measure and classify occupational careers within the NLS data? I test two approaches to this problem. The first approach involved a case-by-case analysis of the work histories of 200 men randomly selected from the data. The second approach involved the application of optimal matching techniques. The results from the two approaches suggested that boundaries exist between different types of occupations and that careers tend to be defined by work primarily within one of these bounded areas.
The second question addressed in this study is how occupational careers have changed over time. I found several changes in the types of occupational careers between the two cohorts. The second cohort had lower levels of white-collar, craft, and unionized blue-collar careers than the earlier cohort, and much higher levels of low-skill/unemployed careers. I also found that year to year occupational instability increased in the second cohort, although most of this increased instability occurred within career types rather than from people crossing the boundaries between careers. This increase in occupational instability calls into question the idea that detailed occupations will be a central source of stability within the New Economy.
The final question addressed by this study is how the changes occupational careers between the two cohorts affected opportunities for upward mobility. I found that opportunities for mobility declined in the second cohort, mostly due to the decline of craft and unionized blue-collar careers. I find little evidence, however, that occupational instability is particularly detrimental for disadvantaged men or that it played a major role in changing mobility rates.
