Luis Abinader is poised for a thumping re-election win

President Luis Abinader of the Dominican Republic cuts a dull figure. First elected in 2020, the 56-year-old former businessman embodies the technocratic, market-friendly centrism that has long shaped Dominican politics. Yet his approval ratings hover around 70% and he is on course for a resounding re-election on May 19th. His Modern Revolutionary Party (PRM) is tipped to retain majorities in both houses of Congress.

Mr Abinader’s opponents are weak and divided. The Dominican Liberation Party (PLD), which ruled for 20 of the past 28 years, has been damaged by corruption scandals. Leonel Fernández, a former three-term president who quit the PLD in 2019, is running as a third-party candidate.

Mr Abinader inherited a strong economy. Free-trade zones and tax incentives have drawn foreign investment to beach resorts and manufacturing, contributing to growth of 4.9% per year on average over the past 50 years. Living standards are rising faster than anywhere else in the region.

As president, Mr Abinader has been an effective steward in his own right. His decision to let in tourists without a negative covid test during the pandemic is credited with helping the country’s quick recovery. Although voters worry about inflation, the PRM’s middle-class base tends to blame forces beyond government control.

Mr Abinader’s anti-graft credentials have burnished his reputation. In 2020 he appointed a respected former Supreme Court judge as attorney-general, prompting an unprecedented anti-corruption drive. Oodles of former PLD officials have been ensnared. A landmark asset-forfeiture bill signed in 2022 aims to recoup some $740m in embezzled cash and bribes. Transparency International, a monitor, praised the country for making “significant progress” in tackling corruption.

The president still hews to clientelism in various ways. The public sector has added 100,000 workers since he took office. A digital-payments system funnels cash to the needy when the government wants to shore up support. The notion that elites wield undue influence and reap disproportionately large benefits from the booming economy stalks the president.

Mr Abinader is weakest on security. Although he has reformed the police and removed corrupt officers, it remains voters’ primary concern, based on a rising murder rate and the crisis next door in Haiti. But Haiti is also a convenient scapegoat. The PRM’s tough approach to its violence-wracked neighbour has also won it support. In 2022 Mr Abinader’s government approved the construction of a 164km (100-mile) border wall to stop migrant crossings. He has increased deportations of Haitians from 154,000 in 2022 to 250,000 last year. Haiti-bashing, notes Ernesto Sagás of Colorado State University, “plays out very well on the campaign trail”.

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