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Abstract
In light of the Biden Administration's 2023 decision to lift sanctions on Venezuela, and Venezuela's failure to comply with the US conditions for relief, this paper analyzes relations between China and Venezuela and how US policy toward Venezuela affects both Venezuela and China. Venezuela has been China's strongest ally in the Americas since 2000. This alliance led to Chinese loans of over $40 billion, a majority of China's investment in the continent. When Venezuela's economy collapsed, China was left with the decision to cut ties, but chose to defend its Latin partner as the west criticized the Maduro regime. Recently, Venezuela has failed to meet US conditions for sanctions relief, prompting debate over the appropriate US response. At the same time, Venezuela has threatened military conflict with its neighbor Guyana. Based on a policy analysis that considers effects on both Venezuela and China, this paper recommends the following policy actions: a partial reimplementation of sanctions until Venezuela complies with all conditions, additional conditions for sanctions relief that provides oversight of both the Venezuelan Election Commission and the Venezuelan media, continued humanitarian aid, and movement of military forces to the region to deter a military conflict.
Keywords: Venezuela, China, United States, Latin America, elections, policy response, international relations
The fourth quarter of 2023 was a period of heightened activity for Venezuelan international relations. In October, the U.S. agreed to remove its sanctions on Venezuelan oil and other products in return for a guarantee of free and fair democratic elections in 2024. This caused a firestorm of press coverage as well as analysis of the policy decisions being made by the Biden Administration. Then, on December 3, 2023, President Nicolas Maduro held a vote on whether the Venezuelan public approved of the annexation of a majority of neighboring Guyana, raising international concerns about the stability of the region and the potential need for U.S. military involvement to deter potential military conflict.
Amidst these developments in Venezuelan international affairs and actions by the Biden administration, it is critical for U.S. policy analysis to consider how U.S. actions will affect America's prominent geopolitical rival, the People's Republic of China. China has been Venezuela's strongest ally since Hugo Chavez took power in 1998. Since then, China has loaned...