Content area

Abstract

The potential impact of non-sampling errors on election polls is well known, but measurement has focused on the margin of sampling error. Survey statisticians have long recommended measurement of total survey error by mean square error (MSE), which jointly measures sampling and non-sampling errors. We think it reasonable to use the square root of maximum MSE to measure the total margin of error (TME). Measurement of TME should encompass both sampling error and all forms of non-sampling error. We suggest that measurement of TME should be a standard feature in the reporting of polls. To provide a clear illustration, and because we believe the exceedingly low response rates commonly obtained by election polls to be a particularly worrisome source of potential error, we demonstrate how to measure the potential impact of nonresponse using the concept of TME. We first show how to measure TME when a pollster lacks any knowledge of the candidate preferences of nonrespondents. We then extend the analysis to settings where the pollster has partial knowledge that bounds the preferences of non-respondents. In each setting, we derive a simple poll estimate that approximately minimizes TME, a midpoint estimate, and compare it to a conventional poll estimate.

Details

1009240
Identifier / keyword
Title
Using Total Margin of Error to Account for Non-Sampling Error in Election Polls: The Case of Nonresponse
Publication title
arXiv.org; Ithaca
Publication year
2024
Publication date
Oct 31, 2024
Section
Economics
Publisher
Cornell University Library, arXiv.org
Source
arXiv.org
Place of publication
Ithaca
Country of publication
United States
University/institution
Cornell University Library arXiv.org
e-ISSN
2331-8422
Source type
Working Paper
Language of publication
English
Document type
Working Paper
Publication history
 
 
Online publication date
2024-11-01
Milestone dates
2024-07-27 (Submission v1); 2024-08-26 (Submission v2); 2024-10-31 (Submission v3)
Publication history
 
 
   First posting date
01 Nov 2024
ProQuest document ID
3086142484
Document URL
https://www.proquest.com/working-papers/using-total-margin-error-account-non-sampling/docview/3086142484/se-2?accountid=208611
Full text outside of ProQuest
Copyright
© 2024. This work is published under http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.
Last updated
2024-11-02
Database
ProQuest One Academic