From physical climate storylines to environmental risk scenarios for adaptation in the Pilcomayo Basin, central South America

Abstract

Communicating climate change projections to diverse stakeholders and addressing their concerns is crucial for fostering effective climate adaptation. This paper explores the use of storyline projections as an intermediate technology that bridges the gap between climate science and local knowledge in the Pilcomayo basin. Through fieldwork and interviews with different stakeholders, key environmental concerns influenced by climate change were identified. Traditional approaches to produce regional climate information based on projections often lack relevance to local communities and fail to address their concerns explicitly. By means of storylines approach to evaluate climate projections and by differentiating between upper and middle-lower basin regions and focusing on dry (winter) and rainy (summer) seasons, three qualitatively different storylines of plausible precipitation and temperature changes were identified and related to the main potential risks. By integrating these climate results with local knowledge, a summary of the social and environmental impacts related to each storyline was produced, resulting in three narrated plausible scenarios for future environmental change. The analysis revealed that climate change significantly influences existing issues and activities in the region. Projected trends indicate a shift towards warmer and drier conditions, with uncertainties mainly surrounding summer rainfall, which impacts the probability of increased flooding and river course changes, two of the most concerning issues in the region. These findings serve as a foundation for problem-specific investigations and contribute to informed decision-making for regional climate adaptation. Finally, we highlight the importance of considering local concerns when developing climate change projections and adaptation strategies.