Future hydrogen economies imply environmental trade-offs and a supply-demand mismatch

Abstract

Hydrogen will play a key role in decarbonizing economies. Here, we quantify the costs and environmental impacts of possible large-scale hydrogen economies, using four prospective hydrogen demand scenarios for 2050 ranging from 111–614 megatonne H₂ year⁻¹. Our findings confirm that renewable (solar photovoltaic and wind) electrolytic hydrogen production generates at least 50–90% fewer greenhouse gas emissions than fossil-fuel-based counterparts without carbon capture and storage. However, electrolytic hydrogen production could still result in considerable environmental burdens, which requires reassessing the concept of green hydrogen. Our global analysis highlights a few salient points: (i) a mismatch between economical hydrogen production and hydrogen demand across continents seems likely; (ii) region-specific limitations are inevitable since possibly more than 60% of large hydrogen production potentials are concentrated in water-scarce regions; and (iii) upscaling electrolytic hydrogen production could be limited by renewable power generation and natural resource potentials.

Future hydrogen economies need massive amounts of low-carbon hydrogen. Here, we show that mismatches between economic production and supply locations, water scarcity, and the need for renewable power and materials might limit large-scale hydrogen production.