A log odds of positive lymph nodes-based predictive model effectively forecasts prognosis and guides postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy duration in stage III colon cancer: a multi-center retrospective cohort study

Abstract

Background

The log odds of positive lymph nodes (LODDS) was considered a superior staging system to N stage in colon cancer, yet its value in determining the optimal duration of adjuvant chemotherapy for stage III colon cancer patients has not been evaluated. This study aims to assess the prognostic value of a model that combines LODDS with clinicopathological information for stage III colon cancer patients and aims to stratify these patients using the model, identifying individuals who could benefit from varying durations of adjuvant chemotherapy.

Method

A total of 663 consecutive patients diagnosed with stage III colon cancer, who underwent colon tumor resection between November 2007 and June 2020 at Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center and Longyan First Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, were enrolled in this study. Survival outcomes were analyzed using Kaplan–Meier, Cox regression. Nomograms were developed to forecast patient DFS, with the Area Under the Curve (AUC) values of time-dependent Receiver Operating Characteristic (timeROC) and calibration plots utilized to assess the accuracy and reliability of the nomograms.

Results

Multivariate analysis revealed that perineural invasion (HR = 1.776, 95% CI: 1.052–3.003, P = 0.032), poor tumor differentiation (HR = 1.638, 95% CI: 1.084–2.475, P = 0.019), and LODDS groupings of 2 and 1 (HR = 1.920, 95% CI: 1.297–2.842, P = 0.001) were independent predictors of disease-free survival (DFS) in the training cohort. Nomograms constructed from LODDS, perineural invasion, and poor tumor differentiation demonstrated robust predictive performance for 3-year and 5-year DFS in both training (3-year AUC = 0.706, 5-year AUC = 0.678) and validation cohorts (3-year AUC = 0.744, 5-year AUC = 0.762). Stratification according to this model showed that patients in the high-risk group derived significant benefit from completing 8 cycles of chemotherapy (training cohort, 82.97% vs 67.17%, P = 0.013; validation cohort, 89.49% vs 63.97%, P = 0.030).

Conclusion

The prognostic model, integrating LODDS, pathological differentiation, and neural invasion, demonstrates strong predictive accuracy for stage III colon cancer prognosis. Moreover, stratification via this model offers valuable insights into optimal durations of postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy.