Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis of dengue transmission in Lao PDR

Abstract

Dengue, a zoonotic viral disease transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, poses a significant public health concern throughout the Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR). This study aimed to describe spatial–temporal patterns and quantify the effects of environmental and climate variables on dengue transmission at the district level. The dengue data from 2015 to 2020 across 148 districts of Lao PDR were obtained from the Lao PDR National Center for Laboratory and Epidemiology (NCLE). The association between monthly dengue occurrences and environmental and climate variations was investigated using a multivariable Zero-inflated Poisson regression model developed in a Bayesian framework. The study analyzed a total of 72,471 dengue cases with an incidence rate of 174 per 100,000 population. Each year, incidence peaked from June to September and a large spike was observed in 2019. The Bayesian spatio-temporal model revealed a 9.1% decrease (95% credible interval [CrI] 8.9%, 9.2%) in dengue incidence for a 0.1 unit increase in monthly normalized difference vegetation index at a 1-month lag and a 5.7% decrease (95% CrI 5.3%, 6.2%) for a 1 cm increase in monthly precipitation at a 6-month lag. Conversely, dengue incidence increased by 43% (95% CrI 41%, 45%) for a 1 °C increase in monthly mean temperature at a 3-month lag. After accounting for covariates, the most significant high-risk spatial clusters were detected in the southern regions of Lao PDR. Probability analysis highlighted elevated trends in 45 districts, emphasizing the importance of targeted control strategies in high-risk areas. This research underscores the impact of climate and environmental factors on dengue transmission, emphasizing the need for proactive public health interventions tailored to specific contexts in Lao PDR.