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Prabowo Subianto's victory in Indonesia's 2024 presidential elections was decisive, and it is widely accepted that incumbent President Joko Widodo's de facto endorsement of him played a significant role in this outcome. But the motivations of Widodo (commonly known as "Jokowi") for picking his former adversary as his heir, and the reasons for his determination to get Prabowo elected in a landslide, remain poorly understood. This article demonstrates that Jokowi selected Prabowo after other options had fallen through, and that he made his choice with full awareness of the risks and uncertainties involved. By implication, he also tolerated the danger a Prabowo presidency could pose to Indonesian democracy. Tempted by Prabowo's offer to make Jokowi's son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, his vice-presidential candidate, Jokowi went all-in and mobilized state resources to secure their triumph. Based on interviews with key actors, this article delivers a detailed picture of the factors that made Prabowo president-and that gave Jokowi few guarantees of continued influence.
Keywords: Indonesia, elections, democracy, autocracy, presidentialism.
On 10 February 2024, the state of Indonesia's democracy, the world's third largest, was on full display. It was the last day of campaigning in the country's presidential elections, and more than 100,000 people filled the Gelora Bung Karno stadium in Jakarta, the capital, to watch Prabowo Subianto speak.1 Prabowo, Indonesia's minister of defence and a fixture in its politics for decades, delivered a medley of his biggest hits. His show included the condemnation of foreign interests that tried to manipulate Indonesia, the promise to lift citizens out of poverty, and the singing of nationalist songs. But intermixed with these traditional Prabowo themes were newer, softer tones. For instance, the screen in the stadium switched between real-time images of the profusely sweating Prabowo and video clips of his cartoon avatar-a cute, overweight and smiling uncle figure. The real Prabowo shed tears, raising his hands in prayer to display his new emphatic vulnerability. Most importantly, he promised to continue the policies of outgoing President Joko Widodo (commonly known as "Jokowi"). Everybody in the stadium understood that Prabowo was the president's favourite candidate for his succession, despite Jokowi's repeated protestations of neutrality. Jokowi's son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, was Prabowo's running mate. The president had toyed with the idea of campaigning...