Content area

Abstract

Mathematical models are established tools to assist in outbreak response. They help characterise complex patterns in disease spread, simulate control options to assist public health authorities in decision-making, and longer-term operational and financial planning. In the context of vaccine-preventable diseases (VPDs), vaccines are one of the most-cost effective outbreak response interventions, with the potential to avert significant morbidity and mortality through timely delivery. Models can contribute to the design of vaccine response by investigating the importance of timeliness, identifying high-risk areas, prioritising the use of limited vaccine supply, highlighting surveillance gaps and reporting, and determining the short- and long-term benefits. In this review, we examine how models have been used to inform vaccine response for 10 VPDs, and provide additional insights into the challenges of outbreak response modelling, such as data gaps, key vaccine-specific considerations, and communication between modellers and stakeholders. We illustrate that while models are key to policy-oriented outbreak vaccine response, they can only be as good as the surveillance data that inform them.

Details

1009240
Identifier / keyword
Title
Mathematical modelling to inform outbreak response vaccination
Publication title
arXiv.org; Ithaca
Publication year
2024
Publication date
Oct 17, 2024
Section
Quantitative Biology
Publisher
Cornell University Library, arXiv.org
Source
arXiv.org
Place of publication
Ithaca
Country of publication
United States
University/institution
Cornell University Library arXiv.org
e-ISSN
2331-8422
Source type
Working Paper
Language of publication
English
Document type
Working Paper
Publication history
 
 
Online publication date
2024-10-21
Milestone dates
2024-10-17 (Submission v1)
Publication history
 
 
   First posting date
21 Oct 2024
ProQuest document ID
3118928809
Document URL
https://www.proquest.com/working-papers/mathematical-modelling-inform-outbreak-response/docview/3118928809/se-2?accountid=208611
Full text outside of ProQuest
Copyright
© 2024. This work is published under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.
Last updated
2024-10-22
Database
ProQuest One Academic