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NATO has endured for over seventy-five years, facing the challenges of the Cold War and a difficult transition to counterinsurgency operations after September 11,2001. Now, the Atlantic Alliance confronts a new set of threats. Revitalized great-power competition and the diffusion of technology undoubtedly will test the adaptability of this thirty-two-nation collective defense organization. Novel technologies hardly are a foreign concept to the world s most powerful military alliance. In its recent history, NATO has helped member countries develop and adopt capabilities ranging from ballistic missile defense to military unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), or drones. Many emerging and disruptive technologies (EDTs) of the current era, however, are qualitatively distinct from NATOs previous experiences and therefore pose different challenges.
Unlike that of earlier innovations in NATOs portfolio related to improved radar or nuclear weapons, the eventual military utility of nascent EDTs such as artificial intelligence (AI) often is less tangible or apparent. Researchers warn that the performance of AI may soon surpass that of humans in many basic activities such as writing essays and driving vehicles.1 Recent public fixation with the ChatGPT large language model program points to the vast interest and intrigue surrounding future applications of AI. Meanwhile, quantum computers are beginning to solve complex mathematical problems at speeds far beyond the capacity of humans. Such technologies may be used to decrypt cybersecurity protocols, vastly improve navigation systems, and design and fabricate components for weapons of mass destruction.2 They also likely will accelerate decision-making speeds and enhance precision-weapon targeting.3 While militaries have yet to realize the full potential of these technologies, it is not difficult to imagine how EDTs will shape the global strategic environment and future wartime paradigms.4
Emerging technologies offer Russia and China tools to contest the liberal international order that the United States and its NATO allies seek to uphold. Their contestation includes Russia's ongoing war against Ukraine and Chinas plans to project power regionally by enlarging its nuclear arsenal.5 It is telling that Russian president Vladimir Putin has stated that the country that wins the AI race "will be the ruler of the world."6 Moscow is pursuing "weaponized AI without any internationally imposed restrictions," with a particular interest in lethal autonomous weapon systems (LAWS).7 Chinas leadership has similar views and is attempting...